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008
FXUS64 KHGX 210449
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1149 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Conditions remain on track, so little changes have been made to the
forecast. Ridging aloft and at the surface continue to control the
weather pattern across the region, resulting in hot and humid
conditions. Low-level moisture continues to surge inland, that
combined with some sfc convergence is resulting to isolated showers
over the coastal waters and along the Matagorda Island. These
showers should gradually taper off by sunset. Expect another mild
and muggy night with patchy fog, dense at times, developing through
early morning.

Similar weather conditions to today can be expected for Saturday as
high pressure remains over us. Highs will climb into the low to mid
90s with overnight lows mainly in the upper 70s.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

While Astronomical Fall is in full swing by Monday, the weather
around here this upcoming work week will still be feeling very
summer-like. Upper-level ridging over the northern Gulf will help
keep temperatures above normal for our area (though not as hot as
we have been this past week). Afternoon high temperatures will be
in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, and then low to mid 90s
for the rest of the region through at least Wednesday. There is an
upper- level low that will be swinging down through the Central
and Southern Plains towards the later half of the week, but the
exact timing and location of it is rather uncertain at this time.
A short wave associated with this low may swing through our area
as early as Wednesday helping to bring slightly drier and very
slightly cooler conditions. High temperatures Thursday and Friday
will be 1 to 3 degrees cooler than the first half of the week with
much of the area staying in the mid to upper 80s (with some
isolated spots of low 90s west of Katy. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the low to mid 70s for much of the area (and upper 70s
along the coast) through Wednesday. Then similarly to the high
temperatures, the lows will drop a few degrees for the second half
of the week with much of the area in the upper 60s to low 70s.

One other change from this past week to next week, is that with the
high pressure not directly overhead, there will be daily chances of
showers or storms developing along the sea breeze in the afternoons
generally along and south of I-45. These storms will also help cool
temperatures down locally wherever they pop-up.

Fowler
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&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Areas of MVFR with localized IFR are expected again tonight. The
best chance of fog will be over rural areas away from the
immediate coast and outside of urbanized areas. Though there is
some model guidance suggesting MVFR cigs could make into the city
of Houston and impact IAH, we continue to opt for a scenario where
the fog remains outside of the city. Any MVFR conditions should
break by mid-morning. Saturday appears similar to Friday. However,
a slightly steeper low-level gradient is expected to increase SE
winds somewhat by the afternoon. Therefore, we decided to
increase Saturday`s forecast winds by 2-3 knots.
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&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Much of the same conditions are expected through at least midweek
next week. There will be light to occasionally moderate onshore flow
(5-10kt during the day, then 10-15kt during the overnight and early
morning hours) and low seas (1-3ft) will continue through the
weekend and into next week. There will be increased chances of
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters
beginning Sunday night and continue through at least midweek next
week.

The NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure as it tracks through
the Caribbean and into the Southern Gulf by the middle of next week.
The NHC currently has a 50% (medium) probability of formation over
the next 7 days. This system has not yet developed, so it is still
far too early to determine it`s track, intensity, or any specific
impacts from it - but mariners should continue to monitor forecast
updates for it from the NHC through the next several days.

Fowler
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&&

.TROPICAL...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico as an area of
low pressure could develop by the early to middle part of next week.
Conditions are looking favorable for gradual development of this
system and could become a tropical depression by late next week as
it moves slowly northward or northwestward into the southern Gulf of
Mexico. The NHC currently has a 60% (medium) probability of
formation over the next 7 days. This system has not yet developed,
so it is still far too early to determine it`s track, intensity, or
any specific impacts from it. Don`t put too much stock into any
single deterministic model runs. Please continue to monitor the
latest forecasts and updates from the NHC at www.hurricanes.gov.

Batiste/Fowler
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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College Station (CLL)  97  74  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  96  76  94  75 /   0   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  80  88  80 /   0   0   0  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Fowler