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074
FXUS61 KILN 150753
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
353 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring nearly seasonal temperatures to start
the weekend. But then heat will build for next week. Highs will
be in the 90s all week with lows in the 70s.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will move off to the
east today. This will result in dry conditions and highs near
normal. There is a band of clouds around 7 kft near the Ohio
River that still has to drop south and diminish early this
morning. Beyond that, just some thin cirrus, especially across
northern counties this afternoon.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep a very dry airmass
across the region with just some thin high clouds at most.
Temperatures will be able to drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s
tonight, but there will be a large diurnal range as readings
will soar into the lower 90s on Sunday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Sunday night will be the start of the prolonged stretch of very mild
overnight lows, primarily in the 70s.

H5 height rises will lead to a large heat dome that builds over much
of the eastern CONUS as we progress into the next work week. Across
portions of the Ohio Valley, ECMWF/GFS ensembles suggest H5 height
anomalies exceeding 2 sigma by the middle of the week. Underneath
this ridge, a stagnant, hot and humid air mass will remain in place
through the entirety of the work week. The primary uncertainty with
this regime is the exact placement of the high pressure system,
which could play a role on storm potential. Even as the region of
high pressure expands through the middle of the week, some global
models still try to initiate some showers/storms, likely diurnally
driven from the unstable air mass that will be in place. This could
certainly moderate daytime highs on any particular day. However,
without any convection, we will observe highs in the 90s and lows in
the 70s each day next week.

Given the prolonged stretch of hot daytime highs and very mild
overnight lows, the experimental HeatRisk product does suggest
anywhere from major to extreme heat-related impacts. This indicates
that the prolonged heat will affect anyone (not just those that are
normally sensitive) without effective cooling and adequate hydration.
Additionally, most days will observe heat indices near or exceeding
100 degrees across our CWA.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the period. Some lingering mid clouds
will dissipate early in the period. Later there will be some
thin cirrus. Winds will be northeast to east 10 kt or less.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...