Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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074 FXUS61 KILN 150753 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 353 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring nearly seasonal temperatures to start the weekend. But then heat will build for next week. Highs will be in the 90s all week with lows in the 70s.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will move off to the east today. This will result in dry conditions and highs near normal. There is a band of clouds around 7 kft near the Ohio River that still has to drop south and diminish early this morning. Beyond that, just some thin cirrus, especially across northern counties this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep a very dry airmass across the region with just some thin high clouds at most. Temperatures will be able to drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight, but there will be a large diurnal range as readings will soar into the lower 90s on Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Sunday night will be the start of the prolonged stretch of very mild overnight lows, primarily in the 70s. H5 height rises will lead to a large heat dome that builds over much of the eastern CONUS as we progress into the next work week. Across portions of the Ohio Valley, ECMWF/GFS ensembles suggest H5 height anomalies exceeding 2 sigma by the middle of the week. Underneath this ridge, a stagnant, hot and humid air mass will remain in place through the entirety of the work week. The primary uncertainty with this regime is the exact placement of the high pressure system, which could play a role on storm potential. Even as the region of high pressure expands through the middle of the week, some global models still try to initiate some showers/storms, likely diurnally driven from the unstable air mass that will be in place. This could certainly moderate daytime highs on any particular day. However, without any convection, we will observe highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s each day next week. Given the prolonged stretch of hot daytime highs and very mild overnight lows, the experimental HeatRisk product does suggest anywhere from major to extreme heat-related impacts. This indicates that the prolonged heat will affect anyone (not just those that are normally sensitive) without effective cooling and adequate hydration. Additionally, most days will observe heat indices near or exceeding 100 degrees across our CWA.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR will prevail through the period. Some lingering mid clouds will dissipate early in the period. Later there will be some thin cirrus. Winds will be northeast to east 10 kt or less. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...