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137
FXUS63 KJKL 180811
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
411 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional shower (and possible thunderstorm) chances will
  occur through Thursday.

- A warming trend will lead to temperatures around 10 degrees
  above normal over the upcoming weekend.

- Active weather returns for the 1st half of next week, with
  showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024

Current surface analysis has the forecast area being impacted by a
weak surface low that`s been slowly riding up the eastern seaboard.
Low-level moisture, attributed to this system, has caused a stratus
deck to develop along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Areas
north are seeing mostly clear skies. Temperatures overnight have
fallen into the low to mid-60s.

The aforementioned surface low and upper-level shortwave will
continue to impact the area today through the remainder of the
forecast period as it very slowly lifts northeastward out of the
area. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to
develop this afternoon. Forecast soundings for this afternoon
indicate that decent instability will be in place with pretty solid
PWs. However, not expecting anything in the way of severe weather as
shear is largely lacking across the area. High temperatures are
expected to climb into the upper-70s to low 80s. Showers and storms
will taper off toward sunset with mostly clear skies anticipated
overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Thursday brings another chance albeit small chance of showers and
thunderstorms; mainly for areas along and east of the Mountain
Parkway as the system, that`s been impacting the region, finally
begins to eject out of the region. Forecast soundings continue to
favor thunderstorm development but once again, the lack of shear
will prevent any storm from really gaining strength. Highs for
Thursday will climb into the low to mid-80s as surface high pressure
nudges in from the southwest.

Overall, the period will be highlighted by afternoon showers and
thunderstorms with increasing temperatures. Daytime highs will begin
to climb toward the mid-80s by Thursday with overnight lows holding
steady in the upper-50s to lower-60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024

Model guidance shows a 592mb subtropical high centered over Texas,
supporting a positively tilted ridge upstream. Concurrently, a
longwave positively tilted trough looks to encompass much of the
eastern seaboard. As far as sensible weather for eastern Kentucky,
any lingering showers should be tapering off heading into the
evening, with fog developing overnight heading into Friday. Lows
should generally be in the 50s.

Friday through Sunday, expect the eastern trough to progress further
north and east and for the subtropical ridge to slightly strengthen.
With increasing heights aloft, daytime high temperatures are expected
to run 5-10 degrees above normal, in the mid to upper 80s. Expect
mostly sunny skies for Friday, with some clouds showing up Saturday
and Sunday. Lows will generally remain in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Next week, active weather returns to eastern Kentucky, with model
guidance showing an upper level low ejecting out of the
intermountain west into the Plains, while the subtropical high over
Texas begins to shift eastward. Some showers and thunderstorms look
to spill over the ridge into the area during the afternoon Monday,
with on and off storms continuing through Wednesday. Highs  Monday
are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with cooler temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 70s to low 80s with the added
cloud cover limiting daytime heating. Lows will generally be in the
upper 50s to low 60s.
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&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2024

A combination of conditions exist across the area with this TAF
issuance. Southern terminals (KJKL, KSJS, KLOZ and KSME) are
expected to fall into categorical IFR to MVFR overnight. Terminal
KSYM is expected to fluctuate between MVFR/VFR overnight.
Fog/low- level stratus will continue through the early morning
before improving to MVFR/VFR by the early afternoon. As this
system, that`s brought the lowered CIGS and showers, continues to
impact the area; a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms
will develop Wednesday afternoon after 18Z through 22Z before
dissipating. Showers and storms may cause brief reductions in
VSBY. Toward the end of the period, CIGS are expected to fall
again into categorical MVFR overnight Wednesday. Light and
variable winds are forecast to persist through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST