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476
FXUS61 KLWX 071737
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
137 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry through Saturday as high pressure builds over the region. A
slow moving trough approaches from the Great Lakes Saturday
night into Sunday leading to more unsettled conditions.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Looks like one of the most comfortable weekends of the summer
from a weather standpoint... enjoy!

With high pressure overhead, mostly clear conditions are
expected tonight as lows settle in the 50s to low 60s. Some of
the high elevation valleys can dip into the upper 30s/low 40s.

A dry Saturday is expected as surface high pressure passes
south of the area during the day, then over the western Atlantic
Saturday night. Near normal temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s once again, with Saturday night lows a bit milder - in
the low to mid 60s.

A weak cold front looks to cross the area Sunday, bringing the next
chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Rain chances will be
around 30-40pct, though any showers/storms look to remain isolated
to scattered given the system lacks deep moisture. Highs Sunday
afternoon reach the low to mid 80s, with 70s in the mountains. Dry
conditions return Sunday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build briefly into the region on Monday. There is
a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly during the
afternoon or early evening, as a front will not be too far to the
east of the region. Highs middle 70s in the west and lower 80s in
the east.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually increase Tuesday and
into Wednesday as high pressure moves east and the front nearby
becomes a warm front and connects to an approaching low pressure
system from the southwest. This low is expected to move northeast
into the mid-Atlantic later Tuesday into Tuesday night. An
associated cold front trailing this low could bring a reinforcement
of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Highs
Tuesday middle to upper 70s. Highs Wednesday near 80 to lower 80s.

By Thursday, the low pressure system and its associated cold front
move east. This will allow for high pressure to develop and build in
from the west. Dry conditions should ensue with high temperatures
lower to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure
passes south of the area. Today, west winds gust up to 20-25 knots
from late morning to early evening. Lighter west to northwest winds
around 10 knots over the weekend.

A weak cold front is forecast to cross the area Sunday, bringing
isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Outside of any showers/storms, VFR conditions are expected.

VFR conditions Monday and Monday night. Winds northwest 5 to 10
knots through the period. VFR conditions for the most part Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Any showers or drenching thunderstorm Tuesday
into Tuesday evening could bring a brief period of MVFR conditions.
Winds northwest becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the northern Chesapeake
Bay for this afternoon as west winds gust to around 20 knots.
Elsewhere, gusts around 15 knots are expected, though occasionally
higher gusts are possible.

Winds decrease this evening and remain below SCA criteria through
the weekend. A weak cold front crosses the local waters Sunday
afternoon, bringing scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms.

No marine hazards expected Monday through Tuesday night. Winds
northwest 5 to 10 knots Monday through Tuesday. Winds becoming more
southeast 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night. Any showers or drenching
thunderstorms Tuesday could bring brief wind gusts over 30 knots.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-538-539.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CPB/KRR
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/CPB
MARINE...KLW/CPB