-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
398
FXUS64 KMOB 200503
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail across the region through
the next 24 hours. The exceptions being isolated To scattered
showers or storms that will develop across mainly southern
portions of our area again on Thursday afternoon. Easterly winds
will continue through the period, elevated between 10-15 knots
over coastal areas through tonight, and then 15-20 knots across
most of the area on Thursday. DS/12
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 
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/issued 658 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/

..New UPDATE and AVIATION...

UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Made a slight adjustment to this evenings forecast as a few
isolated showers will persist across portions of southwest AL and
interior southeast MS a little later into the evening. Introduced
a slight 20 percent or less, PoP for those areas through about 9
pm or so. Otherwise no changes to forecast. DS/12

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail across the region through
the next 24 hours. The exceptions being isolated showers this
evening until about 02z, and then isolated to scattered showers or
storms that will develop across mainly southern portions of our
area again on Thursday afternoon. Easterly winds will continue
through the period, elevated between 10-15 knots over coastal
areas through tonight, and then 15-20 knots across most of the
area on Thursday. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday as our forecast
area remains located in between newly formed Tropical Storm Alberto
located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a large upper level
ridge of high pressure that stretches from the Mid-Atlantic states/
Eastern Seaboard to the Tennessee Valley region. A few rain showers
have developed over portions of southwest AL and southeast MS within
a narrow plume of enhanced moisture that is advecting westward
across our area.

No significant changes have been made to the forecast through
Thursday afternoon. The upper level ridge of high pressure will
expand westward across the Tennessee Valley, including central and
northern portions of MS/AL tonight into Thursday. Isolated to
scattered showers over inland portions of the area should diminish
by early evening. Isolated to scattered convection should then
become focused mainly offshore or near the immediate coast/beaches
late tonight into early Thursday morning. Similar conditions are
anticipated for Thursday afternoon with a few showers (possibly a
thunderstorm or two) developing again as another plume of increased
moisture spreads from east to west across our region on the southern
fringe of the upper level ridge axis. We will maintain low POPs,
mainly across locations east of I-65 and near the coast. Generally
kept temperatures trended in line with the NBM. Lows tonight are
forecast to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s over inland
locations and in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the immediate
coast and beaches. Highs on Thursday should range in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

Coastal hazards: There have been a few reports of wave runup/minor
coastal flooding along the west end of Dauphin Island (Bienville
Blvd) and near I-10 ramps in northern Mobile Bay around times of
high tide today courtesy of the persistent easterly flow. Similar
conditions are possible on Thursday, so we have opted to issue a
Coastal Flood Advisory around times of high tide Thursday for Mobile
Bay, mainly for the I-10 ramps/Causeway areas and along the west end
of Dauphin Island and possibly Shell Belt/Coden Belt Rd areas in far
southern Mobile County. Dangerous surf with large breaking waves up
to 5-7 feet will continue to impact area beaches through early
Thursday evening. A HIGH rip current risk also continues through
Friday night. /21

SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

An upper level ridge over the southeastern quarter of the Conus
shifts west as an upper level shortwave system off the Southeast
Coast stalls and meanders around through the Short Term. A second
shortwave trough moves east over the northern half of the Conus. It
moves over the Northeast early in the coming week, where in
combination with the shortwave system off the East Coast, begins to
form a deep upper level trough over the East Coast. As the upper
system moves near the Southeast Coast, a weak surface low organizes
off the Florida Atlantic coast, then meanders northwest over the
Southeast Friday night into the weekend, bringing an uptick in
moisture levels over the Southeast (precipitable h20 values rise to
around 2" in guidance) Friday/Friday night. With contention between
subsidence from upper level high pressure and increased instability
from the uptick in moisture levels, an increase in PoPs over land
areas Saturday afternoon through Saturday night will be limited to
areas southeast of I-65, with the biggest drop in subsidence and
increase in instability located in this area. Over the open Gulf,
moisture levels remain high enough over the warm Gulf waters to
override upper subsidence, with scattered to numerous rainshowers
and thunderstorms expected through the Short Term.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures at well above
seasonal levels, with an uptick from Friday into Saturday. High
temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected Friday, with mid to
upper 90s over areas well inland from the coast. The increase in
moisture levels Saturday will bring Heat Indices topping out in the
100 to 105 degree range over most land areas of the forecast area.
Low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday night rise
into the low to upper 70s Saturday night.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The mean upper trough continues to organize and deepen as the
northeastern trough and southeast Conus trough join. The upper
trough also shifts west over mainly the southeastern Conus as the
mean upper trough begins to take a positive tilt over the Southeast.
Moisture levels increase into the 2.1"-2.3", and with decreasing
upper subsidence as the upper ridge shifts west, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected by Wednesday and
Thursday. Temperatures will see a downward trend through the
Extended, approaching more seasonal norms. With the increase in
moisture levels, combined with near seasonal high temperatures. Heat
Indices in the 101 to 106 degree range (locally higher) are expected
in the coming week.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

No significant changes to the ongoing marine forecast. A moderate to
strong east-southeasterly flow will persist through Thursday in
response to the pressure gradient between newly formed Tropical
Storm Alberto in the southwestern Gulf and a large area of high
pressure over the southeast. Hazardous conditions for Small craft
will persist through Thursday as seas range around 7 to 10 feet
offshore with waves of 2 to 3 feet in nearshore bays and waterways.
Winds and seas are expected to slowly diminish by the weekend as
the gradient weakens. 03/21
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile      73  93  72  93  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  30  10  20  10  40
Pensacola   75  93  76  91  77  92  79  94 /  20  30  20  40  10  30  20  50
Destin      76  92  78  91  79  91  80  92 /  30  30  30  40  20  20  20  50
Evergreen   68  93  70  94  72  95  73  96 /  10  20  10  40  10  30  10  50
Waynesboro  70  94  69  96  72  97  74  98 /   0  10   0  20   0  20  10  40
Camden      68  92  69  94  72  96  74  96 /   0  10  10  20   0  20  10  40
Crestview   69  94  71  95  72  96  74  97 /  10  30  20  50  10  40  10  50
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&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM CDT this
     afternoon for ALZ263>265.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.
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&&

$$

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