-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
517
FXUS61 KRLX 201713
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
113 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues through the week courtesy of a broad
upper level ridge. A cold front arrives late Sunday night into
Monday, with showers and storms, and somewhat cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Thursday...

Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control through
Friday, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers and
storms during peak heating hours. Bulk of any convective activity
today should largely be confined to the mountains, but a better
chance will exist on Friday, with a slight uptick in instability
and moisture expected. As with previous days, bulk of any
convection that is able to get going will dissipate with loss of
heating, and storms will be slow to move, and contain brief
heavy downpours.

After some patchy valley fog Friday morning, temperatures Friday
afternoon will tick a few degrees higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 113 PM Thursday...

The hot and humid weather will continue on Saturday as the upper-
level ridge remains over the East. Expect air temperatures to reach
the middle 90s across the lowlands and the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the mountains. With dew point temperatures expected to be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s, it will once again `feel like` the lower
100s for many. The chance of an isolated pop-up shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the afternoon as the heat
bubbles up.

Sunday will be another hot day, but perhaps not as hot as Saturday.
High clouds will roll in from the northwest Sunday morning as a cold
front slowly approaches from the Midwest and Great Lakes. More
clouds than sun is expected by the afternoon, and most places will
see chances of thunderstorms by late Sunday afternoon and evening.
The cold front will likely swing through overnight Sunday night,
with precipitation chances increasing to 50-70% areawide. Heavy
downpours are possible, as PWATS are projected to be anywhere from
1.5-2.0 inches areawide.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 113 PM Thursday...

In the wake of the cold front, Monday will finally be a break from
the intense heat. Many of the lowlands spots will see highs in the
upper 80s with slightly lower humidity, thanks to a northwest wind
in a postfrontal airmass. Unfortunately, this isn`t going to last
very long because models are showing another ridge building in from
the west by Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures rebounding into
the middle 90s across the lowlands again. Chances of rain may return
again next Wednesday as another front approaches from the west. Next
Thursday is expected to be cooler again in the wake of a front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 620 AM Thursday...

Fog will dissipate in the next couple of hours, then VFR is
expected for the rest of the day courtesy of high pressure. Calm
winds and at least partly clear skies may again allow for some
fog to develop overnight.

Light and variable winds are expected during the day, followed by
calm to light flow for tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today. Low for fog tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/duration of fog tonight may vary from
the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 625 AM Thursday...

A heat wave continues through the weekend. Temperatures are
forcast to approach record highs at some locations on several
days.

The records for Thursday, June 20 to Sunday, June 23 are listed
below for our official climate sites, along with the current
forecast values.

  Forecast / Record High Temperatures
---------------------------------------
      Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 93 / 99 (1931) | 94 /105 (1931) |
HTS | 93 /100 (1931) | 97 / 99 (1953) |
CKB | 92 / 94 (1931) | 94 / 98 (1953) |
PKB | 94 / 97 (1931) | 95 / 97 (1953) |
BKW | 87 / 92 (1931) | 89 / 93 (1953) |
EKN | 90 / 92 (1931) | 91 / 92 (1953) |
---------------------------------------
      Saturday, 6/22 |  Sunday, 6/23  |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 96 / 98 (1988) | 94 /100 (1929) |
HTS | 97 / 98 (1988) | 94 /100 (1930) |
CKB | 94 / 97 (1923) | 91 / 96 (1957) |
PKB | 96 / 98 (1988) | 93 / 94 (1964) |
BKW | 90 / 92 (1931) | 88 / 91 (1931) |
EKN | 92 / 93 (1923) | 89 / 89 (1899) |
---------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be
neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus the
all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     96     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     97     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     94     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     96     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     90     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     92     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

             Records Broken Thus Far
---------------------------------------------------
      Date          Site   New Record  Old Record |
---------------------------------------------------
June 18th (Tues.) |  EKN  |    92    |  91 (1994) |
June 19th (Weds.) |  EKN  |    90    |  89 (1905) |
---------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JLB

CLIMATE...TRM/JLB/GW