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033
FXUS61 KRLX 141609
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1209 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A chance for showers and storms this afternoon and evening with
a cold front. An extended stretch of hot and dry weather will
begin Sunday and last much of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1110 AM Friday...

Radar imagery show how weak convection, associated with an
approaching cold front, is trying to develop across OH. Expect
an increase in convection along the front as it crosses east
this afternoon and evening. Adjusted down afternoon temperatures
per latest surface observation trends, and abundant clouds
noted. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 645 AM Friday...

Updated POPs for SE Ohio and the Huntington Tri-State area for
the light showers that are encroaching on that area. Some may
not be reaching the ground, but there are some moderate echoes
that likely are getting to the surface. Otherwise, no major
changes made at this time.


As of 315 AM Friday...

Mostly calm and clear the rest of tonight, though some clouds
are working into our SE Ohio and Mid-Ohio Valley counties. We
still have a few hours where some river valley fog could form,
but none has as of press time. If any does form, it likely will
be more patchy than previous nights.

Another warm day is in store for today, with forecast highs
several degrees above normal for most of the area. Some showers
have been noted over ILN`s area, but have generally dissipated
as they moved southeast towards our CWA. However, as a weak cold
front gradually pushes south and southeast towards the area,
some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
eventually make it into the CWA. Greatest chances still look to
be across the northern half of the CWA, but at least isolated
activity is possible areawide. With surface CAPE over 1500 J/kg
in spots, and modest shear of 25-40 kts possible, a few storms
could have longevity and produce strong winds or marginally
severe hail.

Most storms should weaken and eventually dissipate in the few
hours following sunset, with clearing expected overnight. Areas
that receive rain today could then see some fog tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1207 PM Friday...

Upper-level high pressure will be centered over the Deep South
Sunday, slowly moving northeastward throughout the day. Temperatures
will start to heat up across the lowlands with afternoon highs
expected to be in the lower 90s by Sunday afternoon. Winds will
become southerly, leading to the return of more humidity. Expect
heat indices to reach the lower and middle 90s across the
lowlands Sunday afternoon. This will just be the start of an
extended stretch of hot and dry weather on the way. The cooler
spots will be the higher elevations of the West Virginia
mountains, where temperatures will remain in the 70s and lower
80s during the hottest parts of the day.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1207 PM Friday...

Confidence in the potential of a heat wave over the region next week
is increasing. Models seem to be coming into better agreement
regarding the placement of the upper-level ridge axis, which seems
to be right over or slightly east of the Appalachian mountains for
much of next week. This would provide support for an extended
stretch of very hot and dry weather across most of the region, with
the exception of the higher elevations, where temperatures will be
cooler and isolated thunderstorms may develop. Rain chances next
week look minimal at this time, but if the upper-level ridge ends up
being farther to the east than what models are currently predicting,
then our region could end up cloudier and cooler with more
convection. That will be one thing to watch over the coming days
with subsequent model runs. However, if our current forecast of
largely dry weather pans out, many places will likely see worsening
drought conditions throughout the week.

From Monday through next Thursday, highs are projected to reach the
upper 90s across the lowlands with heat index values approaching 100
degrees each afternoon. It will be very important to put heat safety
into practice next week. This includes drinking plenty of fluids,
taking frequent breaks in the air conditioning or the shade whenever
possible, checking on the elderly and sensitive groups, and using
plenty of sunscreen. Stay tuned for updates as the potential heat
wave approaches.
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&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 700 AM Friday...

Aside from a brief reduction at EKN and mention of valley fog in
the CRW METAR, fog has been largely a non-factor overnight. A
few showers may impact HTS in the next few hours, but no flight
category reductions are anticipated.

As a cold front pushes down from the north and northwest this
afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop
across the area, especially the northern half of the CWA.
However, coverage is questionable so POPs were kept on the
lower side. SHRA and TS were not included as prevailing weather
in any TAFs, but VCTS was put in for all TAFs except CRW and
BKW.

With some rain this afternoon/evening, and clearing and lighter
winds tonight, fog is more likely tonight, and was included as
prevailing in a few TAFs. Outside of any t-storms, winds should
remain on the lighter side - generally SW-W`ly ahead of the
front, and N`ly once it pushes through.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium due to uncertainty on fog extent and
timing tonight, and timing/coverage of t-storms later today.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog extent and timing tonight may differ
from the forecast. Thunderstorms could wind up a bit more
widespread than expected.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR expected at this time.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...FK