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255
FXUS61 KRNK 220804
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
404 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain over the area today, keeping the
weather mostly dry through early Sunday. A front drops down
Sunday into Monday with increasing chances for storms. Above
normal temperatures and increasing humidity will lead to an
increased risk of heat related impacts.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Hot and mainly dry.

2. Isolated showers/storms possible in the mountains during the
afternoon.

Early summer heat wave is impacting parts of the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Forecast high temperatures today are forecast well
into the 90s for our lower elevations, 80s to around 90 for the
mountains and mountain valleys...the New River and Greenbrier
valleys reaching the lower 90s. Some relief, in the form of
low afternoon relative humidity (dewpoints in the lower 60s), will
help offset the oppressiveness...the heat index remaining at or
below 100. So I guess you could say it will be hot, but not
oppressively hot. The mugginess, in the form of higher
dewpoints, will become more apparent tonight into Sunday as
southerly winds bring increasing moisture to the forecast area.

Rain chance today looks pretty anemic. Expecting a similar
geographic footprint with respect to shower/storm development
today (compared to yesterday) with the Appalachian Divide being
the focus for convergence, afternoon cloud build-ups leading to
isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mountains north of
Lewisburg, up along the WV/VA border, and across the NC high
country seem to be the areas to watch according to the
convective allowing models, and see no reason to deviated from
these models.

For tonight, will begin to feel the increase in atmospheric
moisture. Dewpoints in the lower 70s are lurking over central
and eastern NC and this moisture will get drawn northward
courtesy of a southerly wind. An approaching front to our
northwest will also begin to funnel some moisture toward our
region from the northwest. The net effect should be a 4 to 8
degree rise in surface dewpoints overnight, setting the stage
for a more humid, muggy day Sunday. Question then becomes
whether cloud cover can offset the temperature enough Sunday
to keep the heat index in check. Regardless of the details, the
heat risk, especially for heat intolerant, will remain elevated
to significant for the next several days.

Confidence in the near term is high.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a chance of showers and thunderstorms from
a cold front during Sunday and Monday.

2) Drier conditions will arrive for Monday night into Tuesday.

High-resolution models indicate a shortwave trough crossing the
Appalachian Mountains on Sunday that could spark a line of showers
during the morning hours. While Sunday will end up a tad cooler
compared to earlier in this weekend, the prevailing heat with
increasing moisture and lift will trigger more showers and
thunderstorms by the afternoon as a cold front approaches the Ohio
River Valley. Instability appears favorable to develop some strong
storms, which is denoted by a marginal risk of severe weather during
Sunday and Sunday night along the Interstate 64 corridor.

Lingering convection may spill over into Monday morning as the cold
front traverses the Mid Atlantic. Winds should increase from the
northwest behind the front, and drier air will erase the risk of
showers and thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. High pressure should
move eastward during Monday night into Tuesday to provide dry
weather. While temperatures will only drop a few degrees during
Monday and Tuesday compared to Sunday, dewpoints should fall notably
more to where it will feel less humid.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for another chance of showers and
thunderstorms from a cold front for Wednesday and Thursday.

2) Somewhat drier conditions may follow by Friday.

The heat will return again for Wednesday ahead of another cold front
approaching the Ohio River Valley. Highs in the mid 90s appear
likely for the Piedmont, but the added heat and moisture should fuel
the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Storms may first
develop during Wednesday afternoon in the mountains and enter the
Piedmont later in the evening and into Wednesday night. The cold
front should cross the Appalachian Mountains sometime on Thursday to
continue the threat of convection. Temperatures will only fall a
little after the frontal passage. Drier air should arrive by
Thursday night, but high pressure will pass further to the north on
Friday. A little moisture may remain along the southern Blue Ridge
to spark another chance of storms by Friday afternoon.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Mainly VFR through the 24 hour TAF.

River fog is possible in the mountain valleys this morning,
otherwise skies to remain mostly clear and visibilities
unrestricted. The only TAF site which may have brief restricted
vsby due to fog is LWB. Even if it materializes, it will be of
short duration.

Daytime heating will lead to some cloud buildups over the
mountains this afternoon and evening. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible from LWB north along the spine of
the Appalachian Divide between Noon and sunset (17Z/00Z).
Steering winds are weak, so and showers activity is expected to
remain nearly stationary. Isolated afternoon shra/tsra are also
possible over the NC high country.

Winds today are expected to remain relatively light, from the
south. May see some gusts of 10-15 kts late morning and
afternoon due to the deep mixing that is forecast.

Forecast confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Pattern favors VFR, but increasing chances for storms in brief
MVFR or lower conditions may occur Sunday into Monday, favoring
the afternoon. Morning fog or ground fog may occur along the
rivers and where it happens to rain the day before. Tuesday
looks dry, with chance for showers and thunderstorms increasing
again Wednesday and Thursday.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

The following record high and record warm low temperatures may
be in jeopardy:

Sunday 06/23/2024
Record High Minimum:
Roanoke - Forecast 73, Record 75 (set 1996)
Blacksburg - Forecast 68, Record 70 (set 1896)

Record High:
Roanoke - Forecast 97, Record 98 (set 1914)
Lynchburg - Forecast 97, Record 98 (set 1911)

Monday 06/24/2024
ROA record high minimum, forecast 73, record 72 (set in 2010)

Wednesday 06/26/2024
LYH record high, forecast 98, record 98 (set in 1952)

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...SH/VFJ/WP