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703
FXUS62 KTBW 172343
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
743 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 741 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

We continue to see dry and breezy conditions across the area with
only a spotty shower or two in Southwest Florida. This trend will
continue into the overnight nights with a slight increase in
moisture tomorrow however most of us will stay dry again. No
changes needed to the forecast at this time.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Drier air in the midlevels will keep rain chances minimal through
the rest of the day and leading into tomorrow. A little extra
moisture down south could generate a few isolated showers between
today through Wednesday. By Thursday, more moisture begins to move
into the area from the Atlantic leading to increased rain chances
into the weekend.

The big question still remains, what is going to happen with the
system being watched in the Atlantic. currently, models are still
uncertain with intensity, track and timing. Some show a weak system
moving further north and impacting the Carolinas, some show just a
wave of moisture with no development moving over coastal GA, SC.
Either way, with the increased easterly flow and added moisture
streaming in, we could see elevated rain chances through the
weekend.

Temperatures remain at or a little above average for this time of
year. Pockets of heat indices in the triple digits could be
possible throughout the week. Warmest temperatures will hover
along the coast where the relief of the afternoon seabreeze will
not be felt due to the overbearing east coast breeze.

&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with breezy winds out
of the east with gust up to 25 knots possible during daylight
hours.
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&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A strong easterly flow will continue to be an issue throughout the
week. Advisory level winds beginning tonight into tomorrow will
diminish slightly tomorrow afternoon before surging once more
tomorrow night. This cycle continues into Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Ample moisture at the surface keeps fire dangers to a minimum.
However high dispersions are expected throughout the week as
winds remain elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA  93  76  93  77 /  10   0  20  30
FMY  92  75  92  77 /  30   0  30  20
GIF  91  74  91  75 /  10   0  40  20
SRQ  94  76  94  77 /  20   0  20  30
BKV  93  71  92  73 /  10   0  20  20
SPG  93  78  91  81 /  10   0  20  40
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&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.
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&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana