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767
FXUS62 KTBW 201825
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
225 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Another day of dynamic upper and lower level activity across our
area. Most of the peninsula is wedged between an upper level low
located at the western tip of Cuba and the low pressure system
situated in the Atlantic. Thanks to these two features, ample
moisture is available to the NE and SW of our area, while central
FL, rests under a dry slot. This will keep convection at a
minimum for today, except for southern areas where more moisture
is available. Models currently show the Atlantic low moving
onshore somewhere along the NE coast of FL or GA coast early on
Friday. With a North FL/GA landfall, this will keep our area in
more of the dry zone for this system, best chances for rain will
be mainly north of I4.

Once this system has moved through we will once again resume our
typical summertime pattern, based on the location of the Bermuda
High.  E to ESE flow continues through the weekend, keeping rain
chances inland and pushing west in the late afternoon/evenings.
However, mid next week the Bermuda High will drift a bit further
east as a trough moves over the NE. WSW flow will take the place of
the ESE. This will favor showers and storms earlier in the day along
the west coast that will then move inland.

Warm, muggy conditions stick around and heat indices will likely
reach into the triple digits, especially as we enter into next
week and the WSW flow pushes warm moist air over the area.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the majority of TAF
sites in our area throughout the afternoon and evening due to a dry
air mass lingering around the upper and middle portions of the
state. Parts of southern Florida, however, have much more moisture
in the air and as a result may be more likely to experience some
isolated showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon. PGD,
FMY, and RSW are those sites that have the best chances of being
impacted by these storms, but they should be fairly brief and move
out of the area relatively quickly if and when they do arrive.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Winds will begin to diminish into the evening and become light and
variable. This will help the seas calm down over the next couple of
days and remove the need for any small craft headlines. Winds remain
less than 10kts into the weekend and early next week before SW flow
increases. Showers and storms possible each afternoon/evening.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

No major fire weather concerns through the period. Breezy ESE winds
begin to diminish this evening.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA  76  93  79  94 /  20  40  30  60
FMY  74  94  78  93 /  10  50  30  60
GIF  75  95  77  95 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  75  93  78  94 /  10  30  30  60
BKV  72  94  73  95 /  20  60  30  60
SPG  80  93  82  95 /  10  40  30  60
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&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn