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062
FXUS63 KEAX 151730
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Showers and thunderstorms expected early this morning and again
this afternoon across northwest MO. Storms this afternoon could be
strong to severe

-Several days of hot conditions expected today into next week.
 Mid 90s and heat indices near 100 can be expected through this
 time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Mid level ridging currently resides over the forecast area which led
to a fairly quiet Friday and Friday night. Overnight a shortwave
pushed east off the Rockies bringing a line of showers and
thunderstorms across Kansas. Thunderstorms have produced gusty winds,
but generally remained below severe criteria. Storms should
continue to track northeast impacting far northwest Missouri around
daybreak. While severe weather is not anticipated, gusty winds and
brief heavy downpours could be a possibility.

Storms are expected to move out of the forecast area mid morning
leaving the middle part of the day dry. Temperatures return to above
normal for the afternoon with highs reaching the lower 90s for most
locations. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s to near 100
degrees. Additional thunderstorm will be possible during the
afternoon and overnight hours Saturday. Instability will be on the
rise during the afternoon along with bulk shear of around 30 knots
should be sufficient to produce a few strong to severe storms.
Highest potential for strong to severe storms will be across far
northwest MO during the afternoon hours. Right now, hail and strong
winds look to be the primary hazard, but an isolated tornado
can`t be ruled out with potential for a few supercells in the
area. The severe threat dwindles overnight but showers and
thunderstorms linger, eventually moving out of the forecast area
by Sunday morning.

As we head into Sunday ridging pushes off to the eastern US and
begins to build. With troughing off to our west we will remain
in the middle with decent southerly flow Sunday and continuing
into the work week. Precipitation chances look fairly minimal
for the early part of the week. Temperatures will be the main
concern each day with Sunday looking at highs reaching the mid
90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Similar
conditions can be expected on Monday with mid 90s and near 100
heat indices. The good news is that dewpoints look to stay
mainly in the 60s through this period keeping our heat index
values for soring. We should finally see a bit of relief
(although minimal) Tuesday night into Wednesday as a front moves
through the forecast area bringing the return of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period as cloud coverage
continues to dissipate. Additional scattered to broken cloud
coverage is expected to move across the terminals throughout the TAF
interval, but these clouds will be above VFR thresholds. Scattered
showers are possible Sunday morning, but confidence is low at this
time. Winds will be out of the south-southeast at 10-15 knots
through the evening and overnight hours, possibly gusting over 20
knots within the first few hours of the period. Winds will
subsequently turn southwesterly in the early morning on Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Hayes