-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
276
FXUS63 KICT 130504
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1204 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat indices likely for central/south central Kansas
tomorrow afternoon along with a few strong to severe storms possible
in the evening

- More rounds of strong/severe storms look to impact the region for
Friday night and Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The combination of higher temperatures and dewpoints on Thursday
will give way to above 100 degree afternoon heat indices for all
locations. HREF ensemble model shows a probability maximum of 105 or
above heat indices setting up over potions of central/south central
Kansas. As a result we will hoist a heat advisory for those areas.
Meanwhile a frontal boundary will sag slowly southward into central
Kansas during the late afternoon/evening hours. Mid level
temperatures are rather warm but enough low level convergence should
allow for isolated/widely scattered higher based storms to develop
along the front late afternoon/evening. The activity will move
slowly southeast. The environment is expected to have higher DCAPE
and around 30kts of shear which will be supportive of damaging winds
and large hail. It`s possible a few of the more intense storms could
produce higher end winds given the DCAPE values. The frontal
boundary looks to stall out over the area then gradually lift back
northward on Friday. A very rich precipitable water axis will reside
along and just north of this northward migrating boundary. This will
be a favorable area for a few convective updrafts to bubble up
during the afternoon from central Kansas into southern Missouri. The
southeast winds with-in high moisture axis will also cause strong
moist upslope to occur over the high plains. Storms will develop in
northeast Colorado/western Nebraska Friday afternoon then should
grow upscale as they move eastward across Nebraska/northern half of
Kansas Friday night into the moisture axis aiding by increasing low
level jet. The evolution Friday night looks to become a forward
propagating MCS with damaging winds as the main risk. Corfidi vectors
would steer this complex of storms in a southeast direction and most
likely follow the path of least resistance into the high
precipitable water axis, which could impact parts of central Kansas
Friday night.

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave
spinning off the coastline of southern California. Models show this
system eventually being punted northeast with developing trough axis
over the northwest coast Thursday night. This system will eject out
into the central plains during the day on Saturday and looks to
generate another round of storms some of which could become
strong/severe. Sunday and Monday look to be dry with highs generally
in the middle 90s. Models suggest next round of storms arriving on
Tuesday night as a frontal boundary pushes southward into
Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Main aviation concern will be early evening storm chances.

A weak cold front is expected to move through Nebraska and into
north central KS by late this afternoon. A few storms will
likely try and develop along it in the 22-01z time frame
generally along and just south of I-70. So for now will run with
prob30s at KRSL-KGBD-KSLN-KHUT after 22z. Confidence is low on
how many storms will develop along the front. Outside of the
storms, VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ033-
048>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL