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966
FXUS63 KMKX 250851
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
351 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Mild and dry conditions prevail today through Friday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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Issued 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Today through Thursday night:

As the departing surface low track across lower MI this
morning, will see pockets of patchy fog across portions of the
area mainly across the Wisconsin River Valley and low-lying
areas along the WI/IL border. High pressure builds in from the
west bring light winds and dry conditions today. With subsidence
resulting in primarily clear condition`s through the afternoon,
will see temps warm into the low to mid 70s this afternoon.
High pressure continues to work it way over WI tonight
maintaining light winds and mostly clear conditions which allow
for ample radiational cooling with temps dropping into the low
50s and even a few locations dipping into the upper 40s.
However, would not be surprised for a few low- lying location
even get down toward the middle 40s briefly.

Otherwise, the upper-level trough to our south this morning is
progged to cutoff from the main flow and meander over the the
Ohio River Valley/Southeast US tonight into Thursday. Meanwhile
the upper- level ridge axis slides east across the Upper Midwest
and will warm temps up for Thursday into the mid to upper 70s
and a few locations cracking 80F is not out of the question.
Similar overnight conditions are expected with lows in the 50s
to upper 40s.

Wagner
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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Issued 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Friday through Tuesday:

Models continue to show the upper-level ridge break down for
Friday as the meandering cutoff low to our south interacts with
the northward moving remnants of the tropical system Helene.
The latest model trends have a bulk of the moisture and impacts
from this system staying to our south-southeast with the high
PWATs exceeding 1 inch only glancing far southeastern WI. Thus,
precip chances remain on the lower side <30% through the weekend
as this system generally skips our CWA, while another upper-
level ridge/surface high sets up over the western Great Lakes
for the weekend. Will see daily temps in the 70s and nightly
temps into the 50s through the weekend.

Extended models continue to hint at a cooler pattern change as
we head into next week. The 00z deterministic are in fairly
reasonable agreement of an upper-level trough digging across the
Upper Midwest, which would bring additional precip chances and
cooler trend into the middle of next week. However, the WPC
Cluster analysis show more variability in the pattern and
timing, but will monitor for the potential cool spell heading
into the start of the spooky season.

Wagner
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Issued 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

With the exception of fog development in the Wisconsin River
Valley and pockets along the WI/IL border, light winds and VFR
conditions prevail across southern WI early this morning. Will
see high pressure build in from the west today and continue to
see light winds and VFR conditions persist through the TAF
period. May see some patchy fog development again Wednesday
night given the lighter winds and recent moisture, but not
confident to add into the latest TAFs at this time.

Wagner
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Low pressure continues northeast across lower MI early this
morning and will track into Lake Huron and eastern Ontario
through the day. Will also see patchy fog potential linger over
the the northern third of the Lake on the backside of the
departing low pressure. Otherwise expect lighter northwest winds
around 10-15 knots across Lake Michigan today as the pressure
gradient relaxes with an incoming surface high pressure building
in from the west. Influence from high pressure will continue
Thursday as it moves overhead. Then winds are expected to turn
easterly and increase, especially across southern Lake Michigan,
for Friday into the start of the weekend as the remnants from
the Gulf of Mexico tropical system works its way northward.
Could see small craft conditions for southern WI nearshore zones
and gusts up to 30 knots in southern portions of the Lake. Will
see this low meander back southeast heading into the weekend
with somewhat lighter winds and influence from another surface
high pressure creep back southward across Lake Michigan.

Wagner
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&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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