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603
FXUS62 KRAH 271831
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid-level disturbance and surface cold front will move across NC
today. The front will linger across the southern and eastern
Carolinas through early Friday, before lifting back north as a warm
front. A stronger cold front will approach the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 PM Thursday...

As the cold from moves to the south east this afternoon scattered
showers and thunderstorms continue to develops along the far
southeastern portion of the CWA. Behind the front a few lingering
light showers continue to slowly move across the region. All shower
activity should exit the area by this evening with dry conditions
expected overnight into early Friday morning. Although the front is
expected to push through a few low stratus clouds could develop
early Friday morning reducing visibilities. Areas most favored for
these conditions will be the Sandhills and Coastal Plain regions
with some areas as far NW as the Triangle. Temperatures will
continue to cool down this evening with overnight lows in the low
70s with cooler spots in the upper 60s. Winds will be light and
variable overnight, but by morning have a general E/NE flow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm Friday morning across southern
counties, but the chance for a thunderstorm should spread across the
entire region Friday afternoon as today`s cold front lifts back to
the north. In addition, an upper level shortwave still appears
poised to bring a chance of thunderstorms across western counties
overnight. In the northwest, highs should be similar to today`s
values, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. In the southeast, highs
should be about 5 degrees cooler than today, reaching the lower to
mid 90s. Heat index values should peak near 100.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

Sat/Sun: Increased pops Saturday afternoon as ensembles have become
a bit more generous with coverage of precipitation, although
deterministic models are a little more reluctant to do so. Pops
settle down Saturday night before increasing again as a cold front
moves from the Ohio River Valley southeast across the state. Have
continued with likely pops, and this front appears as if it may be
the best chance for rain in the next seven days. Highs will be well
into the 90s each day along with heat index values over 100 degrees.
The values should be highest on Sunday, although the arrival of
showers/thunderstorms could temper these readings.

Mon/Wed: The front will be reluctant to move through, and have
maintained chance pops across generally the southern half of the
forecast area Monday afternoon and just slight chances across
southern tier counties Tuesday afternoon. As the front slides south,
a surface high will build in from the north, allowing for flow out
of the north and a brief relief from the heat. The predicted high at
RDU on Monday, July 1 is 87 degrees, which would break a forecast 18
day string of 90+ highs. By Wednesday, the high moves offshore,
allowing a southerly wind to develop again and raise highs back into
the 90s everywhere.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions currently across the region as cold front moves east
over the SE portion of NC. While conditions are expected to remain
VFR over the Triad for the TAF period a brief period of MVFR
conditions could be possible as the showers move across the region.
At KRDU, showers are moving in and expected to bring reduced
ceilings and visibility at times with any heavier showers. Have a
TEMPO for thunderstorms early this afternoon but looks like all the
thunderstorms development will stay to the southeast. MVFR
conditions are expected early Friday morning as low stratus develops
over the region before sunrise and burns off. At KFAY, While the
lines of storms are just to the south of the terminal more
thunderstorms are developing to the southwest and expected to impact
flight restrictions at the terminal. Have MVFR conditions possible
this afternoon then becoming VFR for a short period of time before
low status and or fog develops across the Sandhills early Friday
morning. VFR conditions will return for Friday. At RWI, VFR
conditions will continue with VCSH over the next few hours as the
boundary moves across the region. MVFR conditions are possible
however, at RWI early Friday morning with development of low stratus
across the Coastal Plains. VFR conditions expected to return just
after sunrise.

Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area-wide Sat-Sun
mornings, followed by a good chance of mainly afternoon-evening
showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected early to mid week
next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 27:
KFAY: 102/1998

June 30:
KFAY: 102/2012

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 27:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 77/1998

June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

June 29:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 78/1914
KFAY: 76/1969

June 30:
KGSO: 74/1936
KRDU: 80/1936
KFAY: 79/1936

July 1:
KGSO: 77/1970
KRDU: 75/2012
KFAY: 76/1990

&&

Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ042-078-088-
089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS/Blaes
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...RAH