-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
014
FXUS61 KRLX 180028
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
828 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged heat wave builds throughout the week. Isolated
showers or storms will be possible today and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 545 PM Monday...

Have updated PoPs, temperatures, and cloud cover to represent
the latest trends. Overall, a very buoyant (MLCAPE of 2-3K
J/Kg), but weakly forced atmosphere across the region this
evening, with main forcing for ascent being relegated to
antecedent outflow boundaries, land forced ascent, differential
heating, etc. The best chance for isolated thunderstorms this
evening will be across the Mid-Ohio Valley and in/near the
higher terrain. General downslope flow across the central
lowlands should limit activity compared to other areas. A few
strong thunderstorms are possible this evening, particularly
across the Mid-Ohio Valley where deep-layer shear is most
favorable for the potential for isolated organized development.

As of 200 PM Monday...

Key Points:

* Oppressively hot and humid today and Tuesday
* Pop-up thunderstorms could yield locally heavy rain and gusty
  winds this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon

Building heights aloft continue to support high pressure at the
surface. Moisture streaming up out of the Gulf around surface high
pressure will yield surface dew points in the upper 60s and lower
70s today and Tuesday with oppressive humidity peaking Tuesday
before a westward bulge in the the surface high shunts the richer
dew points to the west and north of our forecast area. Temperatures
in the lower to mid 90s with these dew points will support heat
index values 95 to just over 100 degrees.

Uncapped profiles will support pop-up convection both this afternoon
and again Tuesday afternoon. No widespread severe or flooding threat
is expected with this activity, but convective cores cores becoming
precipitation loaded and collapsing could yield some localized
damaging wind gusts along with locally very high rainfall rates.

Heat safety tips:

* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals
* Know the signs of heat illness

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

High pressure across the eastern U.S. will remain in control
Wednesday and Thursday, with continued above normal temperatures
across the region. Overall, conditions should be relatively stable
and drier, and am not really expecting much in the way of showers or
storms to develop either of these days. Heat indices both days may
not quite reach the 100 degree mark, but the heat will still be
oppressive none the less, with at least upper 90s heat indices
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Monday...

Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control for much
of the week, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers
and storms during peak heating hours. Although dew points will
generally only be in the 60s during the period, the continuation of
temperatures in the upper 90s to possibly even around 100, may
continue to warrant expansion of the heat advisory in time across
much of the lowland counties this weekend. Ridge finally breaks down
towards the end of the period as low pressure moves east across the
Great Lakes region, sweeping a cold front through the area. Along
with a break in the oppressive heat, showers and storms will become
more numerous during the time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 800 PM Monday...

VFR conditions will persist through tonight across much of the
area. The two exceptions to this will be with brief MVFR/IFR
VSBY restrictions within ISOL showers and thunderstorms into
early tonight. The other exception is with fog development later
tonight. Overall, don`t think fog coverage will be very
widespread given recent dry conditions, and should be largely
relegated to areas that received rainfall today and the deeper
mountain river valleys. The best potential for fog development
later tonight would be at CKB/EKN (potentially PKB), with fog
unlikely at our other terminals.

VFR conditions prevail on Tuesday across the region, with the
chance once again for ISOL showers/storms. Overall, coverage
will likely be a bit less than that of today. Brief MVFR/IFR
VSBY restrictions are possible within any heavier showers or
thunderstorms.

Calm or light S/SSE surface flow is expected overnight.
Expect variable or light southeast surface flow on Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog and timing/location of any
showers/thunderstorms; high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR visibility restrictions
could occur early tonight and again on Tuesday with ISOL showers
or thunderstorms. Valley fog coverage/intensity could be more
prevalent overnight than advertised.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 06/18/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
While humidity values will taper off somewhat toward the end of
the week, heat will progressively build. Some high temperature
records could be challenged. Listed below are records within 3
degrees of the forecast highs.


Record High Temperatures:

June 17:
KEKN: 92/1936

June 18:
KCKB: 96/1936
KEKN: 91/1994

June 19:
KCKB: 94/1994
KPKB: 95/1994
KEKN: 89/1905

June 20:
KCKB: 94/1931
KPKB: 97/1931
KBKW: 92/1931
KEKN: 92/1931

June 21:
KHTS: 99/1953
KCKB: 98/1953
KPKB: 97/1953
KBKW: 93/1953
KEKN: 92/1953

June 22:
KCRW: 98/1988
KHTS: 98/1988
KCKB: 97/1923
KPKB: 98/1988
KBKW: 92/1931
KEKN: 93/1923

June 23:
KCKB: 96/1957
KPKB: 94/1964
KBKW: 91/1931
KEKN: 89/1899

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/SL
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...JP