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006
FXUS61 KRLX 181639
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1239 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated strong storms will be possible today. A prolonged heat
wave continues throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1239 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure and upper ridging will continue to expand
across the area through Wednesday, creating very hot conditions
across the region, and a continuation of a heat advisory for all
counties west of the mountains. Showers and storms will fire again
during peak heating hours today. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe with a wind/downburst threat. Similar to yesterday,
high instability/cape, along with weak shear, high PW values, with
storms slow to move and containing heavy downpours, along with that
strong wind/downburst potential. SPC has expanded the marginal risk
for severe across most of the CWA west of the mountains.

Otherwise, as the high continues to expand westward, flow will
gradually continue to become more southeasterly, with somewhat less
humid air taking hold for Wednesday. Not really expecting apparent
temperatures to reach advisory criteria on Wednesday, but with
temperatures still expected to reach into the mid 90s, the heat
headlines will remain. In addition, with more stable conditions
expected to be in place on Wednesday, a dry forecast was maintained
for now, although an isolated shower or storm cannot be completely
ruled out either.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday...

The upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will remain
over the area for the middle of the week, keeping the CWA hot
and dry. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid-90s, with
most locations a few degrees hotter on Thursday. Deepening dry
air aloft will mix down during this period, and likely will help
keep afternoon heat index values under 100F. However, with the
expectation for overnight lows around or a bit above 70F each
night, the heat stress will continue to compound across the area
and the Advisory will remain in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Tuesday...

Strong Bermuda High Pressure system will still influence
temperatures into the weekend, keeping them well above normal.
The hottest temperatures will be observed Friday and Saturday
with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the lowlands each day;
80s in the mountains. A few locations in the low-lying river
valleys, along the Ohio River and across portions of SE Ohio
are forecasted to reach 100. Heat indices will still be
oppressive, even with humidity values lessening some as the week
goes on.

The ridge pattern looks to recede Saturday night into Sunday as
a cold front approaches from the west. That said, PoPs also
increase from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening as this
front approaches and a trough drops out of the north Sunday into
Monday. Showers and some thunderstorms are possible Sunday into
Monday due to this feature, but kept only chance PoPs for now
until confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 600 AM Tuesday...

VFR will return to all terminals once fog dissipates after sunrise.
While VFR is expected for most of the day, brief reductions in
visibility to MVFR/IFR could occur in isolated showers and storms
that develop this afternoon and evening. Activity should lessen
overnight, then at least partial clearing and calm winds may allow
fog to develop again overnight.

Strong, gusty winds could occur in today`s storms. Otherwise,
south to southeast flow will be light during the day and then
calm to light overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief sub-VFR conditions could occur in
showers/storms today. Fog tonight may be more widespread than
currently forecast.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JLB