-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
617
FXUS61 KRLX 180552
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
152 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system originating from the Atlantic brings rain
showers and unsettled weather across the area through midweek.
Mainly dry/quiet weather comes back Friday through weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 810 PM Tuesday...

Made some tweaks to hourly temperatures this evening as there is
a slower fall in temperatures than previously predicted due to
continued winds across the area. Otherwise, no changes were
necessary. Lower ceilings are also starting to take hold,
predicted to spread across the lowlands overnight.

As of 140 PM Tuesday...

A low pressure system will meander over the Carolinas for the next
couple of days, while it continues to weaken and move east, off the
Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, periods of light
rain showers, away from its center, will spread across the area
tonight and Wednesday. Some light rain main sneak into the lowlands
from time to time. However, rainfall accumulations will be minimal,
with localized 0.25 inches across the higher terrain with lesser
amounts elsewhere.

Instability looks marginal for Wednesday under abundant cloudiness
and cool temperatures. Models are not handling well light
precipitation with this system. Therefore, will keep slight chance
PoPs across the lowlands, and chance PoPs along the eastern
mountains. Also, believe guidance is overforecasting thunder.
Removed thunder from forecast due to the lack of a kicker for
Wednesday.

High humidity will keep tonight`s lows ranging from the lower 60s
across the lowlands, into the mid 50s northeast mountains. Clouds
and cooling showers will suppress afternoon heating, providing about
normal temperatures on Wednesday. Used the most representative NBM
50th percentile for temperatures and dewpoints through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Closed low pressure system becomes an open wave disturbance Thursday
night as it gains some momentum moving northeastward. As a result,
precipitation chances will wane west to east with higher
probabilities of 20-30% along and east of the mountains.

Temperatures will start to increase Thursday, depending on cloud
cover, with highs around or a few degrees above normal. The
lowlands will see temperatures around 80 up to the mid 80s; the
mountains will range anywhere from the mid 60s to upper 70s dur
to clouds. Relative humidity values will continue to stay above fire
weather criteria Thursday due to abundant moisture in the area.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
across the area by afternoon though as shortwave disturbances on
the back side of the trough move across the area. Additional
light rainfall amounts are likely with the highest amounts
across our northeastern mountains and foothills. Precipitation
will taper off from west to east late Thursday afternoon into
the overnight hours, even as the disturbance meanders just to
our northeast over NY/PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Tuesday...

High pressure nudges in on Friday reintroducing drier weather,
mostly clear skies and much warmer temperatures. This trend
will last through the weekend with mid to high 80s to around 90
across the lowlands each day; upper 60s to lower 80s in the
mountains.

RH percentages could drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s
across a bulk of the territory both Friday through Sunday.
Winds look light enough to mitigate fire weather headlines
though.

Rain chances return possibly on Monday with a low pressure
system approaching from the west allowing for slight chances of
showers across the area by Monday afternoon. Temperatures will
also be about 3-5 degrees less warm, but still above normal. RH
values look to recover as well on Monday, most locations are
forecasted to get back into the 40s and 50s by the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

MVFR cloud decks are filtering in affecting EKN/BKW today. This
will be the theme for today while through the afternoon most
sites may see a MVFR deck at times or for most of the time for
the mountain sites, but it should not last long as clouds will
continue to lift by mid afternoon and scatter out by the late
afternoon/early evening. VFR should be back in control by the
late afternoon, very early evening at the latest.

During the afternoon shower potential will exist for mainly the
mountain sites and the western sites may not see much if any
activity besides a lone isolated shower possibly. Any showers
will be light in nature and should not take down VIS too much,
if any. The chances for shower and thunderstorm activity are
very low and kept out mention of thunderstorms since they would
be very isolated and even lower in probability.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Lower cloud decks could sneak into the
mountain sites such as EKN/BKW that would lower their flight
category to IFR or lower.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 09/18/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...

Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible across the mountains
again overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ