334
FXUS61 KRLX 080714
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
314 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms remain possible the rest of the week,
as a front wobbles in and out of the region. Some storms may
contain locally very heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms have effectively ended across the CWA
for the time being, but stuck with the NBM grids that keep some
slight chance to chance POPs across much of the area to account
for potential stray shower chances through the night.

It appears that the frontal boundary may sink a bit further
into the CWA than previously expected, so by the time afternoon
and evening convection gets firing, the most widespread storm
coverage may be limited to along and east of the mountains, and
the far southern coalfields. So compared to the Tuesday forecast
from 24 hours prior, we now show Likely POPs being limited to
those areas, but most of the area along and southeast of the
Ohio River could see at least scattered storms today. Our
colleagues at the Weather Prediction Center put that same area
south and east of the Ohio River in a Marginal excessive
rainfall risk. While the greatest risk will likely southern and
eastern parts of the CWA with the most expected storm coverage,
the potential for heavy rain exists everywhere, and any training
of storms could lead to some flash flooding. With forecast
soundings showing precipitable water over the area in the
1.5-2.0 inch range (and maybe a bit higher in spots), any storm
could produce torrential downpours.

The activity should diminish after sunset, but like this past
night, a stray shower can`t be ruled out given the persistently
warm and humid conditions overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

As the front remains over or just north and northwest of the
CWA, the pattern will remain the same, with scattered to
numerous showers and storms in the afternoon and evening hours,
and a relative minimum in activity overnight into the morning.
There are still indications that a wave moving along the front
on Thursday may enhance storm coverage some that day, but for
both Wednesday and Thursday, the highest POPs are once again
over the southern and eastern parts of the CWA. As the air
remains quite juicy over the region, with similar PWAT values
expected as today, the threat for heavy downpours and localized
flash flooding will persist. With lowland highs in the mid to
upper 80s both days and ample low-level moisture, maximum heat
index values in the low to mid 90s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

It will feel like we`re stuck in a sci-fi movie time loop, as
there are no indications that the front will push through the
area at least through the weekend. Thus our daily shower and
thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, with the finer
details of any waves on the front or upper-level disturbances
causing increased storm coverage to be ironed out as we go
through the week. The air looks to remain quite humid up through
the column, with similar PWATs persisting into the weekend.
Air temps and heat index values may both creep upward to end
the week.

Previously it was looking like there was a decent chance that
the front may push through early next week and bring at least a
brief break in the humid and stormy weather. However, the latest
guidance calls that into question, and it may very well end up
that the front simply washes out without ever crossing the area
and bringing us even modest relief. That said, there is a fair
amount of uncertainty in the pattern evolution early next week,
so we will see which way the models will start to cluster as we
go forward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Shower activity has largely ended across the CWA, though we
can`t rule out a stray shower overnight given the juicy nature
of the air over the region, especially PKB and CKB. Gentle to
moderate SW-W`ly breezes will develop during the day Tuesday,
with more afternoon and evening showers and storms expected.
Greater storm coverage is expected the further south and east
you go, so for now no thunderstorm mention was made for PKB or
HTS. PROB30 -TSRA mentions were put into CRW, CKB, and EKN,
with a prevailing SHRA VCTS group in the BKW TAF. Similar to
today, convection should pretty quickly drop off between 00z and
04z Wed, with at best a stray shower expected tonight.

Did put a bit of fog into the valleys through sunrise Tuesday,
and again overnight tonight. However, kept impacts limited both
times due to uncertainty on formation and coverage.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of convection may vary
from the forecast. Development of fog and/or MVFR stratocumulus
could vary from what is currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 07/08/25
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...

Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day this week. Patchy IFR fog possible overnight.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK