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025
FXUS64 KSHV 190526
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

No update is needed to the afternoon forecast package at this
time.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A tropically-influenced weather pattern will continue across the
Four State Region through the middle of the week. Southeasterly
flow associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 (PTC1) in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico will instigate precipitation chances
south of the I-20 corridor through tomorrow evening. The diurnally
driven nature of this convection, combined with the tropical
wind field, lends itself towards afternoon/evening shower and
isolated thunderstorm development today and tomorrow. That said,
convection and cloud cover will provide meager relief with
temperature maximums/minimums continuing above normal in the lower
90s/mid-70s. /16/
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

As tropical influences drift further away from the Four State
Region, above average temperatures will gradually strengthen
through the weekend. This is due to broad ridging across the
Eastern U.S. that will intensify and expand westward into the
Southern Great Plains by Friday, boosting easterly surface flow
that becomes southerly flow later this weekend. Long-range
guidance indicates higher chances of triple-digit temperatures
with probabilities above 15 percent (statistically significant,
some areas higher than 30 percent), especially north of the I-20
corridor.

Heat hazard products will be more likely as a result later this
weekend. Adequate precautions and awareness are encouraged ahead
of time against the elevated potential for heat illnesses. For
this weekend, this includes (and is not limited to) altering
outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside,
checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and
symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions currently prevailing across our terminal airspace
late this evening. Feel like those conditions should hold through
much of the night but cannot rule out a stray IFR/MVFR ceiling
aross our southern and southwest half where better low level
moisture resides. Mid and high level cloud cover will continue to
slowly expand west across the remainder of our airspace this TAF
period and that may tend to hold diurnally driven instability down
and thus, convection at bay. Only mentioned VCSH and VCTS at the
LFK terminal during the late morning and afternoon hours as a
result. Look for mostly east to northeast winds today near 8-12kts
with higher gusts.

13
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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SHV  77  95  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  72  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  70  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  74  93  73  94 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  74  93  72  95 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  74  93  72  94 /  10  10   0  10
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&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13