-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
761
FXUS64 KSHV 241820
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
120 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Safe to say that today will likely be the hottest day thus for
2024 with 9am temperatures in some places already at 90 degrees
and 10am temps even in the middle 90s in a few isolated spots.
Comparing this to 24 hours ago, 10am temps are running some 1-3
degrees above those at 10am on Sunday. The current temperature
forecast has a great handle on this so did not make any changes to
the temperature portion of the forecast. Concerning pops, did
expand slight chance pops a little further north and west which
now encompasses all of Northern Louisiana, extreme East Texas and
Southwest Arkansas and expanded low end chance pops a little
further west or along and east of the I-49 corridor but south of
the I-20 Corridor. PWATS are running above 1.7 inches across this
location which is in advance of weak upper forcing along the
northeast periphery of the stagnant upper ridge across the Tx Hill
Country.

Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in good shape with no
other adjustments necessary.

Updated forecast already sent...13.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate our weather pattern
today, resulting in more hot and humid conditions. Highs today
will range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees again. These
temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s, will yield heat index
values from 105-109 degrees. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will
remain across the entire Four State Region today. One thing of
note is that we could see some rain move into portions of the
region this afternoon. With the center of the aforementioned ridge
across western Texas, the eastern periphery of the ridge will
only extend into the Lower Mississippi Valley, allowing for
northwesterly flow aloft across the SE CONUS. Models suggest that
a cool front will try to backdoor out of the SE CONUS into the
Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A few isolated showers or
thunderstorms may develop along the front and could push westward
into our eastern Louisiana parishes. Although my confidence isn`t
very high on this happening due to the strength of the ridge,
decided to stick with National Blend and keep some slight to low
chance POPs in the previously mentioned areas, as there is some
model support for this scenario to happen. Across the remainder of
the region, a stray shower or two can`t be ruled out with daytime
heating. Precip should diminish by the early evening hours,
leaving behind another warm and humid night across the region,
with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

The ridge will continue to hang across the region on Tuesday, but
the center of it will shift westward into the SW CONUS. This may
allow northwesterly flow aloft to develop over our north and
eastern zones. This could allow for a weak disturbance move along
the flow and bring some slight rain chances across SW Arkansas.
Additional rain chances will be in place across our extreme
eastern Louisiana Parishes near the previous day`s cold front, as
it will stall across the southern portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. For the remainder of the area, still can`t
rule out a stray shower or two with daytime heating. However
despite the rain chances, the upper ridge will have enough
influence on the region to yield another day of hot and humid
temps, with highs ranging again from the mid 90s to near 100
degrees. As a result, a Heat Advisory will remain in place through
Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

On Wednesday, the center of the ridge will remain across the SW
CONUS. The eastern periphery of the ridge is forecast to erode,
allowing for northwesterly flow to move into the eastern half of
our area. Models suggest a cool front will try to backdoor into
the region along the flow, before it stalls or washes out across
our South-Central Arkansas and adjacent Louisiana zones. Despite
this, there is a chance it could bring some widespread slight to
low chance POPS to the area. Regardless, wouldn`t be surprised to
see additional heat products, as highs are still forecast to climb
into the mid to upper 90s.

The ridge will try to reestablish itself more eastward for the
remainder of the work week into the first half of the weekend,
but some slight to low chance POPS will remain across our
Northeast and Central Louisiana zones, along with portions of Deep
East Texas. Expect hot and humid conditions to remain across the
region during this period, with afternoon highs continuing to
range from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. By Sunday into Monday,
models start to differ. There is some hint that the ridge will
start to break down, allowing a cool front to slowly move into
the region, bringing widespread rain chances. But other long-range
progs are keeping the ridge firmly over the region, which would
keep us with hot and humid conditions. Decided to split the
difference and keep some slight to low chance POPS over the area,
along with highs in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, weak surface high pressure over the
OH River Valley is sinking S with a convective push across MS/AL,
tailing back into the ArkLaMiss with a few showers or an isold TS
possible generally along and to the E of I-49. A second backdoor
cold front will work a little farther westward into midweek as the
high pressure is reinforced out of Canada across the midWest and
down the MS River Valley. We will see a chance for convection
areawide during Wednesday aftn, then more hot & dry. /24/
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  80  99  80 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  99  77  98  77 /  30  20  10  10
DEQ  97  74  97  74 /  10  10  20  10
TXK 100  78  99  79 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  98  76  97  76 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  98  78  98  78 /   0  10   0   0
GGG 100  77  99  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24