Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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213 FXUS63 KABR 081521 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1021 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 50 to 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Some storms along and west of the Missouri River may become strong to severe Monday afternoon and evening. - Above normal temperatures will return Wednesday-Friday of next week, with highs mainly in the 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1014 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Continue to watch sprinkles/light showers moving east-southeast across western/central SD. Had earlier this morning expanded isolated PoPs (20%) further north to align with radar trends. HRRR suggests this activity diminishes/moves out of the region by around 18Z, but will continue to monitor and add PoPs into the afternoon if needed. Otherwise, expect highs to rise into the 70s for most locations, with mostly sunny skies north and east, and mostly cloudy skies over central/south central areas. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 459 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Light rain with embedded weak convection has developed again across south central SD early this morning. There are also some remnant showers across east central SD. All of this precipitation should be pushed out this morning by sfc high pressure moving in from the northwest. The remainder of today is expected to be dry and a little cooler than average with highs in the 70s. Can`t completely rule out isolated showers developing late tonight again south of I-90. A shortwave will move along the Black Hills and then follow the upper flow into central SD. Added in some 15 to 20 percent pops between 6z and 12z Sunday. However, even stronger sfc high pressure builds in on Sunday and should cut off any lingering showers. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 459 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The long term portion of the forecast begins on Sunday night with a surface high pressure over the region with an upper level ridge building into the region. The ridge is transient, with an upper level trough and surface frontal boundary sliding across the region Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. A few storms may become strong to severe Monday evening, mainly west of the Missouri River valley. As storms progress eastward Monday night, instability wanes, but an increasing 35-45 knot LLJ should keep convection going across the rest of the CWA. The trough and surface frontal boundary should push east of the CWA between 12-15Z Tuesday with period of mostly dry conditions until the end of the period. By the end of the work week, a couple of surface low pressure systems may progress across the region, bringing a period of showers and thunderstorms. The weather pattern appears fairly active for the end of the work week and into Father`s Day weekend. The 6-10 day pcpn outlook from CPC does favor above average precipitation. Temperatures early in the period will favor near to slight below average before rebounding on Wednesday to above average. The rest of the period should favor above average with highs in the upper 70s, to the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions and light winds are expected through tonight. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...Wise