801
FXUS63 KABR 201125 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm today with high temperatures in the 80s.

- Cooler and windy conditions are expected Saturday, with peak
  wind gusts reaching over 35 mph in areas west of the James River
  Valley.

- Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures Sunday into
  early next week. Above normal temperatures return for the second
  half of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Upper level zonal flow will be over the area today. Will see the
flow become more southwesterly tonight as a shortwave trough skirts
the area. As the trough exits to the northeast, a more zonal flow
pattern will return on Saturday.

At the surface, high pressure currently over the region will get
pushed east today ahead of a low pressure system that looks to reach
the western Dakotas by this evening. The low, and its associated
frontal boundary, will track across the CWA late tonight/early
Saturday morning. May see a few showers or thunderstorms (15 to 20
percent chance) along the front during the overnight hours, mainly
across west central Minnesota where about 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35
to 40 knots of bulk shear will be in place. Behind the front, cooler
air will move into the area on Saturday. A decent pressure gradient
also sets up behind the exiting front on Saturday, with wind gusts
in excess of 35 mph possible, especially across central South
Dakota.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the 50s. Highs on Saturday will be
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Saturday evening, we have an upper level low to our north over ND
which will move to the east through the day Sunday. An upper level
trough will move in from the west for Tuesday. The surface level low
will track across southern Canada with its cold front draped across
our region. This front will move west to east across SD Tuesday. A
high amplitude upper level ridge moves in starting Wednesday
morning. High pressure at the surface remains in place through the
end of the period.

The long term is expected to be dry. There are no PoPs currently
forecast to be above 10%. Temperatures through the period are
expected to increase and move back into the above normal category.
By the end of the period, temperatures are expected to be in the
high 70s to low 80s which is 10-15 degrees above normal. Winds after
Tuesday will be generally from the south with gusts less than 25 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.
Low-level wind shear is forecast to develop over the KATY region
late in the TAF period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin