439
FXAK69 PAFG 231146
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
346 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and dry weather continues in the Central and Eastern Interior
with showers and storms this afternoon from the Western AK Range
to the Brooks Range. The North Slope looks to remain relatively
quiet outside of isolated showers and storms south of Point Lay.
Otherwise, stratus and fog comes back today and tomorrow. Showers
and storms move back into the Central and Eastern Interior
tomorrow afternoon as it turns mostly dry out west. Sporadic
afternoon storms continue each afternoon this week. Looking a bit
farther, we are monitoring a Bering Sea low which could bring some
much needed widespread rain to SW AK beginning on Wednesday,
though there is some uncertainty.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...
A 570 ridge over the Interior continues with a wave of vorticity
in the Western Interior splitting and moving north to the Brooks
Range. This piece of energy then pushes east over the ridge and
through the Brooks Range to Arctic Village it goes. There is an
Arctic low in the Beaufort Sea that is dropping south at 541
decameters. Otherwise, ridging holds over the area through the
short term.

Surface Analysis...
A thermal trough is sitting over the Interior and will remain
around the Central and Eastern Interior this week. This is
bringing hot and dry conditions while a high sits in the Bering
Sea and over Canada. In the Arctic, there is a low northeast of
Utqiagvik and a high north of there extending to the North Pole.
The high then moves east tomorrow evening allowing for offshore
flow and warming temperatures by Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Hot and dry weather continues today and through the week as highs
regularly get into the 80s across the area. Smoke and haze will
stick around the Interior with weak northeasterly flow pushing the
smoke towards the southwest. The main risk for a shower or storm
comes west of the Dalton today and over the higher terrain
tomorrow. Most of the valleys will stay dry, though a stray, brief
shower is possible in the afternoon and evening. There is a
slightly greater chance for showers Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise
the main story will be the heat as we remain in the low 80s
through Tuesday and potentially the mid-upper 80s on Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of fog and stratus will be hanging around the coast today
with mild temperatures continuing. Rain showers and thunderstorms
will be in the Brooks Range as a shortwave moves through. There
will be a chance for a thunderstorm from Red Dog northeast, but
remain away from the coast and south/west of Umiat. Otherwise,
similar story tomorrow and Tuesday with most active weather
remaining in the Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Isolated thunderstorms possible today from the Western AK Range
north with widely scattered storms around McGrath. Most
thunderstorms remain east of Galena and Huslia as well. Isolated
storms move east tomorrow though it remains warm with highs in the
70s to low 80s both days. Along the coast, it stays dry through
Tuesday with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Hot and dry weather continues with highs getting into the mid-
upper 80s by Wednesday. Temperatures remain hot through the end of
the week. One system we are monitoring is a low in the Bering
which may bring a front to the West Coast on Wednesday. The low
looks to hang around through the end of the week so rain chances
continue along the West Coast and in the Western Interior. In the
Interior, a few models (GFS/ECMWF) are hinting at the ridge
shifting north allowing for an easterly wave which would bring
heavy rain and more widespread thunderstorms to the Eastern and
Central Interior. There is a lot of uncertainty with this, but the
potential is there. By next weekend, the ridge begins to wobble
and break down, but there may be increased chances for
precipitation in the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry weather continues with highs in the 70s and low 80s
through Tuesday. Fortunately, wind looks to remain relatively weak
as well, so Red Flag criteria will not be met. But expect minimum
RHs around 20-30% today and tomorrow. On Tuesday, it becomes a
little more moist as minimum RHs rise to 25-35% with the lowest
values in the Yukon Flats. Drier weather looks to return on
Wednesday. Otherwise, expect isolated thunderstorms today from
the Western AK Range to the Brooks range with the greatest risk or
widely scattered storms occurring in an area around McGrath and
also from Hughes to the Central Brooks Range. This area of storms
moves east tomorrow with most of the Central and Eastern Interior,
as well as the Brooks Range seeing a chance for a thunderstorm,
especially in the higher terrain. Isolated storm chances continue
Tuesday afternoon as hot and semi-dry conditions continue.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent heavy rains have led to higher water levels along the
Fortymile River, but drier conditions expected over the next
several days will allow water levels to fall this coming week.
Glacial fed rivers may begin to rise as warming temperatures lead
to increased high elevation snowmelt.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-855.
&&

$$

Bianco