467
FXAK67 PAJK 292335
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 PM AKDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SHORT TERM...Minor changes to the short term forecast at this
time as multiple weak shortwave troughs work around the periphery
of an upper level low situated near Haida Gwaii through Sunday.
Increased winds within inner channels, particular Lynn Canal,
through the rest of this afternoon as thermal gradient enhances
N/S flow with winds up to 15-20kts with an isolated gust up to
30mph possible. Frontal system has made slightly further
progression than anticipated with some light rain reaching the
surface via PAJN FAA Camera so slightly adjusted PoP chances
upward for the central and northern Panhandle through tonight.
Looking to tomorrow, anticipating the arrival of another shortwave
surface trough with bands of precip bringing isolated to
scattered showers across the panhandle. Highest precipitation
chances expected along the coast and along and south of a line
from Sitka to Angoon. Increasing cloud cover tonight over most of
the panhandle will keep minimum temperatures in the mid 50s. For
tomorrow, highs into the 60s across panhandle with isolated
locations in the northern panhandle breaking into the 70s if they
can make it out of cloud cover.


.LONG TERM...Little changes made to the long term forecast heading
through the middle of the week and the Independence Day holiday. A
weak frontal band from a decaying low will continue to bring
increased shower activity to the southern and central panhandle into
Monday before beginning to diminish. A ridge of high pressure will
build in from the south over the panhandle, leading to some skies
clearing by Wednesday for the inner channels. For the outer coast,
the transition to a more persistent WNW and overall onshore flow
will likely lead to marine layer clouds to push in on and off again,
which may lead to slightly lower daytime highs than communities
further inland. Overall maximum temperatures look to remain
seasonably warm ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s.

With the ridge building in, winds for the inner channels are set to
become more light and variable by Wednesday and into the later half
of the week, with the exception of local sea breeze effects such as
in northern Lynn Canal which may become more pronounced once skies
begin to clear out. For the gulf coast, modest winds of around 15 kt
are expected out of the NW as the ridge moves into position in the
eastern gulf before the gradient begins to slacken slightly.

Looking ahead to the Independence Day holiday, conditions look to be
fairly dry and warm Wednesday and on through Thursday morning. By
Thursday afternoon, model guidance begins to show signs of rain
returning to the panhandle from a system moving into the southern
gulf. Model spread is increasing during this timeframe though, so
there is lower forecaster confidence in terms of the timing of this
feature as well as the extent of its influence over the panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...The marine layer is hanging tough over the south end
of Yakutat Bay and over the airport this afternoon with IFR CIGS
around 500 ft agl being reported there. We expect that layer to
sort of slip in and out of Yakutat into the evening with light seabreeze
out of the SW. Farther south, generally MVFR to VFR prevailing
over the central Panhandle, with IFR to MVFR CIGS and VSBYS in
rain being seen over the southern quarter of SEAK closer to the
decaying frontal boundary. For the next 24 hours, we expect the
more numerous coverage of showers to be along the outer coast
through this evening south of Cross Sound, with scattered showers
over the central inner channels. We expect any IFR conditions late
tonight into morning to be around Yakutat where the marine layer
is hanging along the coast, and for a few spots farther south near
the decaying boundary over the central Panhandle.


&&

.MARINE...A weak area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska will overspread intermittent rain over the panhandle
through Sunday. Anticipate elevated inner channel winds up to
15-20 kts and seas up to 2-3ft on Sunday afternoon within N/S
oriented channels as a weak trough pushes northward. General
drying trend moving into next week as a ridge of high pressure
becomes established over the Gulf of Alaska on Monday through
midweek.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION.....JG
MARINE.......NM

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