316
FXAK67 PAJK 271320
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
520 AM AKDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Friday night / The remains of the system
associated with the low that moved inland over the British
Columbia coastline. Clouds have moved into the most of the
panhandle and north towards Yakutat. The periods of light rain is
falling across the southern portion of the panhandle.

Expect that as the remains of the low pulls further east, showers
will start to move from the gulf into the panhandle. A weak broad
high pressure begins to build over the gulf and will be the main
factor in the weather over the next couple of days. No major
weather features for the area to the weekend.

.LONG TERM...Key points: Winds relax Saturday. Light rain showers
continue over the weekend. Increasing potential for violent storm
force winds in the Gulf Monday which could lead to High Wind
Watches for the central and southern region.

Friday expect the rain to diminish through the day, with winds
fully relaxing by early Saturday. Through Saturday and early
Sunday, a ridge at 500mb will help shut off more active weather,
with rain along the northern coast and showers in the Panhandle.
Overall, light winds compared to the previous active period of
weather.

All eyes on late Sunday into Mondays system, with increasing
confidence of seeing violent storm force winds with hurricane
force winds in the second wrap sting jet. High winds, falling
trees, and dangerous marine conditions are all possible impacts
from this system, particularly directed at the southern panhandle.
Ensemble guidance continues to show a rather wide spread of
solutions between the system tracking up near Cape Spencer and
down to Haida Gwaii. However, current deterministic and ensemble
clusters have good run to run consistency on the low center moving
up and maximizing 160 NM off shore of Prince of Wales Island to
the southwest. There is the very real possibility that it will
continue to intensify, digging the aloft trough further south, and
therefore directing the main impacts towards the Haida Gwaii
area. If this occurs, then the panhandle will experience up to
gale force northerly winds.

Focus on rain for Monday, both the Euro and GFS ensemble systems
are highlighting a weak atmospheric river with IVT values of 250
kg/m/s around the central and southern Panhandle for less than 48
hours. While there is still some time for higher magnitudes of
moisture to move into the north, the system at the start of the
week is shaping up to be a wind event, with rainfall within
seasonal normal but periods of heavy rain are anticipated. Snow
levels look to remain above 2,000ft.

&&

.AVIATION...Remnants of the rain and clouds from yesterday will
spread northward today. So while the day is starting off with mostly
VFR conditions, lowered conditions are possible as the light rain
moves north. VIS looks to remain above 5SM but CIGs could drop to
near 2500. Once the lowered CIGs move in, expecting these to last
well into tonight.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...GJS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau