517
FXAK67 PAJK 271248
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
448 AM AKDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Thursday night / Marine stratus layer out
over the the central gulf as clouds near portions of the coastal
communities. Anticipate stratus pushing off shore during the day
again. Do think stratus will push back to the coast overnight
into early Friday.

Easterly flow from British Columbia will bring midday and
afternoon convection development. In this convection, isolated
thunderstorms will develop from midday into the evening. While
some shores spreading over the coastal range, am not very
confident many will do so.

High temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover again today so
potentially a 50 to lower 70 degree range. Cooler temperatures
under the marine stratus should linger near the coast.

.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, the possibility of
some easterly showers moving over the area. Winds should remain
light with the exception of near some of these showers which could
bring some localized gusty winds. This will continue before
models continue to show that a low will enter the southern gulf
which will bring an increased chance of precipitation for the
weekend and into next week. Overall, accumulations still look to
remain low but did up the forecast rain amounts for the area.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show a overall
weak system that looks to potentially persist headed into next
week which could aid in more easterly wave showers returning to
Southeast Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions for the panhandle with the
exception of the outer coast for this TAF issuance. With clearing
skies, widespread sea breezes will develop later this morning, and
diminish late this evening. On the northern panhandle, stronger
wind speeds, particularly in Taiya Inlet, will be present with
increasing temperatures in British Columbia. These winds will win
out unless convective activity successfully moves close to the
border between Alaska and Canada this afternoon. There are signals
that afternoon convection could move into the northern panhandle
and result in a few strikes, but likelihood at this time is low.
Finally, the offshore marine layer looks to move in once again
tonight, bringing IFR CIG conditions.

&&

.MARINE...Due to quiet winds and surface high pressure over the
gulf, no big concerns for the marine zones in the short term
forecast. Wave heights of 3 to 5 feet in the gulf with inner
channel waves forecasted to be around 1 to 3 feet. Northern Lynn
could see the highest waves, around 3 feet, due to wind speeds
increasing to around 15 knots Thursday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage today
due to higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to
remain high over the next several days and are even expected to
increase as cloud cover diminishes. Flower Mountain Snotel site
shows around 7.6 inches of SWE still in the snowpack at 2500 feet
elevation so there is still a decent amount of snow to melt at
higher elevations of the Chilkat basin. As such the Chilkat River
it expected to remain above minor flood stage for the next few
days at least and the advisory may need to be extended if high
water persists.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDROLOGY...Bezenek

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