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FXAK67 PAJK 092301
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Monday night / The next frontal band is
approaching the panhandle and will move in overnight. A fair
portion of SE is partly to mostly cloudy so expect the clouds to
thicken and fill in. Low chance Pops increasing to
likely/categorical levels through the night and into Monday.
Anticipate rainfall total up to about 1/2 inch into Monday
evening.

Post frontal showers will be tapering off overnight likely from 2
reasons. A new ridge building over the central gulf will start to
shift flow in the eastern gulf more NW, and secondly a secondary
wave behind the Monday morning front will move to Haida Gwaii,
leading to a N-NE flow for the southern panhandle. Could see some
rain spread across Dixon Entrance, however, at present it should
only catch the far southern panhandle in the rain shield.

.LONG TERM.../Next week/...Looking ahead to next week, overall,
no real big changes are expected during the week. Once we get into
the new weather pattern, no big weather swings are expected.
The week could be summed up with "lingering leftover showers,
some breaks in the clouds, and cooler temps."

A 500mb low will meander west to east through the gulf far south of
the panhandle through the week. This would put SE AK in a showery or
on/off rain type weather pattern. So in general, kept the chances
for rain and showers in the forecast through the mid range forecast
period. Light rain overall, nothing real impactful here.

Temperatures will also cool back to below normal with increased
cloud cover.

Overall surface ridging is expected through the mid range, so winds
will be generally out of the south. At times, pressure gradients
will tighten, so inner channel winds speeds look to get to around
15 to 20 knots with some evidence of speeds up to 25 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...Cloud cover today has seen some large sunny breaks
over the northern inner channels, including PAGY and PAHN, as well
as some of the southern inner channels starting to see holes this
afternoon. However, a band of stratocumulus clouds have been
stuck in a couple bands spanning the length of the panhandle.
Lowest conditions with these clouds have been between 1-3kt at
PAYA, PAEL, PASI, PAKT, and PAKW. Still expecting these clouds to
lift some with mixing and sea breezes going on across the region,
but they`ve been pretty persistent.

Sunday night an occluded front will track into the outer coast,
spreading light rain inland through Monday morning and afternoon.
Have delayed the timing of rainfall starting in the TAFs some
based on models showing a weakening trend, with respect to
amounts. For this reason, not expecting significantly reduced
visibility due to the rain. Winds with the front will back out of
the E-SE. Strongest winds are likely to be over POW and the
southern inner channels Monday afternoon/evening and some speed
LLWS is possible.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...Ferrin

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