072
FXUS61 KALY 232346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
746 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain showers are
expected mainly west of the Hudson River through tonight. Drier
weather and cool temperatures will return for Tuesday, with rain
chances increasing areawide Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.Update...As of 7:45 PM EDT...Mainly just minor adjustments with
this ESTF. Skies remain mostly cloudy, although guidance
suggests breaks in the clouds continue to develop overnight as
drier low-level air works in from the east/northeast with a
ridge of high pressure building in at the surface overnight.
Currently, a few light showers remain in the Catskills and
Mohawk Valley, but these should taper off as well over the next
few hours. Temperatures are fairly uniform across the region
with 50s to low 60s, and should begin to drop off as breaks in
the cloud cover develop with lows dropping into the 40s to low
50s. Previous forecast remains in good shape with more details
below...

.Update...Expect isolated to scattered rain showers to remain a
threat mainly for areas along and west of the Hudson Valley
through early evening. As the shortwave aloft and jet forcing
depart the area, any leftover rain showers should exit the area
or dissipate by midnight. Rainfall will remain around or below a
tenth of an inch. Elsewhere, expect dry conditions with
continued cloudy skies.

Overnight, mid-level ridging will build across the area from the
west, which will result in strengthening surface ridging across
western New England. Expect dry conditions with partly to
mostly cloudy skies, with temperatures falling into the upper
40s (terrain) to low 50s (valleys).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The ridging aloft and surface high pressure will linger across
the area for the daytime Tuesday, with skies featuring a mix of
clouds & sun. PM highs will range from the upper 50s to low 60s
(terrain), to low 70s (valleys).

Tuesday night, a positively tilted shortwave is on track to approach
the area from the west. As it does so, the southernmost section will
break off and strengthen into a closed low across the Midwest, with
the northern stream trough moving into the Great Lakes and Ontario.
WAA and moisture will strengthen across the region with increasing
southwesterly flow, forcing with the shortwave and surface cold
front, which will increase chances of welcomed rain showers
across the region. Activity will be isolated to scattered to
start, with coverage increasing during the daytime Wednesday and
lasting through the night. Rumbles of thunder will also be
possible as we will have some weak levels of elevated
instability per fcst soundings, though the risk of severe
weather is low.

Temperatures will be cool thanks to the clouds and precipitation,
with highs Wednesday ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. There will
not be much of a diurnal drop Wednesday night with lows only in the
low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An unsettled start to the long term forecast period will give way to
what looks to be another prolonged stretch of dry weather across
eastern New York and western New England. Read on for details...

Upper-level, shortwave troughing resides across the region Thursday
morning as an associated surface cyclone tracks south and east
across southern Quebec. A weak cold front will swing through the
region from west to east Thursday in attendance with the progression
of the surface low while the upper-level wave deepens and closes off
at the 500 mb level. These features, though their position will
maintain better forcing to the north of the region, will allow for
isolated to scattered showers to linger Thursday morning into the
afternoon especially in higher terrain areas where upslope flow
could aid in overcoming the lack of stronger forced ascent. However,
with the upper low following a fairly swift track, dry conditions
should be reinforced across the region by Thursday evening.
Additionally, with moisture on the modest side, QPF is anticipated
to be light and much needed after the recent dry spells.

Upon the exit of the aforementioned system, geopotential heights
increase as upper-level ridging builds in from the west and surface
high pressure sinks south from southeast Canada. Fair weather will
persist across eastern New York and western New England through
Sunday as the upper ridge continues to build farther across the
Northeast.

High temperatures throughout the extended forecast period will be
fairly steady with upper 60s to mid 70s with pockets of mid 60s
across higher terrain regions and upper 70s in valley areas. Low
temperatures, too, will be fairly similar across the period with
mid/upper 40s to low/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z Wednesday...All terminals currently seeing VFR
conditions, which should prevail through most of the TAF period.
BKN mid and high clouds become less numerous as the night goes
on, especially at ALB/GFL. There could be a brief period with
some MVFR stratus at PSF and possibly POU late tonight/around
sunrise tomorrow, which was handled with tempo groups.
Otherwise, with plenty of clouds around and a light breeze we
are not expecting much fog/mist tonight.

Tomorrow, any low stratus quickly mixes out after sunrise. SCT
mid-level clouds remain with cloud bases between 4000-6000 ft,
and high clouds increase ahead of the next upper disturbance,
but VFR conditions should prevail through at least 00z
Wednesday.

Winds will be from the east/southeast at 5-10 kt this evening,
diminishing to 5 kt or less by 04-06z. Winds tomorrow morning
increase to 5-10 kt from the east/southeast again, with some
gusts to around 15 kt possible tomorrow afternoon at ALB/PSF.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
NEAR TERM...Main/Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Main