035
FXUS64 KAMA 231938
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
238 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A few showers and isolated storms are moving across northeast New
Mexico this afternoon. It won`t be out of the question for some of
these to cross the border into either the Texas or Oklahoma
panhandles. At this time, severe weather is not expected. However,
given precipitable water values in the 90th to 97th percentile in
New Mexico and the far western panhandles, these storms could bring
some efficient rainfall in a short period of time. Any storms that
do occur should diminish through the evening.

The main story for the early parts of the week will be the growing
heat across the region. A 593dm upper ridge will become centered
across portions of the Trans-Pecos region and extend across a large
portion of Texas. This will increase our potential for heat stress
starting on Monday across the region, and limiting our rain
potential as well. Highs on Monday should easily reach the upper
90s, many locations flirting with (and some exceeding) the century
mark. At this point, it looks like we won`t be nearing Heat Advisory
criteria as dewpoints will remain in the 50s. That being said,
gusty southwest winds will bring in warmer continental air that
could increase our temperatures higher than currently forecast and
result in the need for a heat advisory, especially for Palo Duro
Canyon. This will be something that is definitely monitored in
later forecasts.

Culin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The heat will continue into Tuesday as the upper ridge strengthens
and shifts west into New Mexico. Southerly winds will continue to
bring both warm and moist conditions to the panhandles. Highs on
Tuesday should easily reach over 100 degrees with potential of some
locations, namely Palo Duro Canyon, flirting with 105 degrees. Even
in locations where the air temperature won`t reach that high,
plentiful moisture around thanks to dewpoints in the 60s, should
bring heat indices flirting with or exceeding 105 degrees. This
mainly would be the potential in the eastern Panhandle. It is more
likely that we would need Heat Advisories on Tuesday.

From Wednesday onward through the rest of the week, we remain hot
with temperatures flirting with 100 to 105 degrees each day and
concerns for any heat advisories will need to be assessed through
the week. However, as the upper ridge remains to the west, we do get
chances each day of seeing storms ride down the east side of the
ridge and potentially affect some of our area. The days with the
best potential at seeing storms looks to be Wednesday
afternoon/evening and Friday afternoon/evening into the weekend. In
these cases, a few weak fronts look to come south and interact with
the moisture in place to bring at least isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Looking very far out in the extended, it
will be interesting to watch next weekend. Many operational models
indicate another front coming toward the region, and possibly into
the forecast area. One operational model in particular is also
painting anomalously high precipitable water amounts in the eastern
Panhandle, nearing 2 inch PW values. This will be something to
monitor in trends for next weekend and if there is any validity to
heavy rain with this set-up.

Culin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with winds
15 kts or less. A passing shower and perhaps a thunderstorm is
possible at KDHT as early as 21z lasting through around 06z.
Details will become more refined as that time frame approaches,
but have left thunderstorm mentions out due to very low confidence
in when or if a thunderstorm will impact the terminal. Amendments
may be needed if confidence is increases in a thunderstorm
impacting the terminal.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                72  99  74 100 /  10   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  74 103  73 103 /  10   0  10   0
Boise City OK              69  99  67 100 /  20  10   0   0
Borger TX                  77 101  77 105 /  10   0  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              73 101  74 102 /  20   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  70  99  72  98 /  10   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               72 100  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 69 100  68 100 /  20  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  72 101  70 103 /  10   0  10   0
Hereford TX                69  98  72 100 /  10   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                75 101  75 104 /  10   0  10  10
Pampa TX                   74  99  73 101 /  10   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                72 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              72 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...52