348
FXUS63 KAPX 271337
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
937 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny skies, seasonably cool temperatures today and tonight.

- Scattered showers and storms expected Friday night through
  Saturday.

- Additional showers and storms remain possible next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Pressure rises will keep today mostly clear and sunny with
relatively light winds from the Northwest as troughing continues
to slide out of the forecast area. Temperatures will be
seasonably cool today with observed temperatures across much of
Northern Michigan in the low 50s early this morning. Highs for
today will be in the upper 60s with the warmest areas being near
the Saginaw Bay region, where temperatures will be in the low
70s. Clouds look to build back in Friday evening/night ahead of
the next weather maker.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing will continue to progress from the Great Lakes over the
northeast CONUS as ridging slides across the northern Great Plains
and upper Midwest. Subsidence provided aloft at the inflection point
of these features will build surface high pressure directly overhead
today, eventually centering itself just east of the region by Friday
morning.

Forecast Details:

Sunny skies, seasonably cool temps today and tonight --
Aforementioned high pressure building overhead will keep rain
chances at bay today as sunny skies are in store for northern
Michigan. Light northwest winds will be in place with seasonably
cool temperatures today. Highs look to only warm into the mid 60s to
low 70s for most areas this afternoon, which would be 5-10 degrees
below normal for the end of June. Clear skies and weak/calm winds
will allow for another night of efficient radiational cooling as
overnight lows are expected to dip into the mid 40s to upper 50s
again tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Midlevel ridging over the western two thirds of the CONUS will
continue the pattern of dry and quiet weather across the Upper
Midwest for the next couple days. Northwest flow of a cooler
Canadian air mass moving across Lake Superior will keep temperatures
slightly below average for late June across Michigan.

Aformentioned ridging is expected to remain in place at the start of
the long term period. Upstream troughing currently over the Pacific
northwest will make its way to the CWA Friday night and return
showers and storms to Northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Scattered showers and storms expected Friday night through
 Saturday: Aformentioned midlevel troughing with weak surface
 level low pressure will deliver scattered showers and storms to
 the CWA this weekend. Between weak forcing, low shear and CAPE
 values, little convection is supported but enough energy to
 produce rubles of thunder is definitely expected by Saturday.
 Biggest story for this event will be a good soaking of rainfall
 for most parts of the CWA. Latest ensembles are hinting at a
 general half inch across northern lower by Saturday afternoon
 while areas of eastern upper could see rainfall totals of an
 inch or more. WPC keeps the western half of the state under a
 marginal risk for excessive rainfall, but rainfall totals are
 expected to remain much lower than flash flood guidance as a
 weak convective environment will struggle to produce efficient
 showers.

-Additional showers and storms remain possible next week: The
 second half of the long term period is expected to repeat the
 first half as midlevel ridging over the western half of the
 CONUS returns surface high pressure this Sunday and Monday.
 Next chance of showers returns around the Tuesday timeframe as
 another low amplitude trough currently over the Gulf of Alaska
 will progress to the Great Lakes region. Still a bit too early
 to advertise rainfall amounts or thunderstorm strength at this
 time but more details will rise with future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected across all northern Michigan TAF sites
through the issuance period. High pressure building into the Great
Lakes will bring sunny/clear skies across most areas today and
tonight. Northwest winds of 5-10 kts will gust to around 15 kts at
times this afternoon before going weak/calm tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NSC
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC