Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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571 FXUS63 KAPX 241752 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 152 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms expected late tonight into Tuesday. Marginal chances of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. - Additional chances of active weather return this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 932 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Patchy morning fog and low clouds quickly succumbing to the early summer sun. High pressure will work across the area today, resulting in those sun-filled skies and near normal temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Dry thru this evening...then showers and storms develop late tonight... High Impact Weather Potential...There is a chance for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms late tonight...mainly west of I-75. Pronounced upper level trough axis and surface reflection continue to push eastward away from our CWA early this morning. Low level ridging is building into Wisconsin and Northern Michigan...bringing remaining shower/storm chances to an end...with a gradual diminish in cloud cover taking place from west to east attm. Upstream high pressure will continue to build over our state today...providing plenty of sun and pleasant summertime temps into the evening hours. Afternoon highs will warm mainly into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Clouds will begin to increase right around sunset in advance of our next relatively fast-moving low pressure system pushing into the Western Great Lakes. Latest near term models suggest increasing chances of showers and storms associated with this system will likely hold off until well after midnight. Will steadily increase POPs from west to east across our CWA between 06Z and 12Z. A strong to marginally severe storm is possible overnight...especially for areas west of I-75...but at this point it appears the best chance for severe storms will be south of our CWA where much stronger instability develops late tonight. Overnight lows will cool into the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Long Term ... (Tuesday through Sunday) Weak midlevel shortwave troughing over the northern Great Lakes Region will continue chances of active weather at times before upstream ridging eventually moves into the area and builds surface high pressure. A second trough over the coastline of British Columbia will quickly progress across North America and continue the pattern of showers and storms at times to the CWA. The first aformentioned trough will make its way to Michigan at the start of the long term (while weakening). Surface low pressure will develop lee of the Rockies, retuning showers and storms to the CWA. Conditions will turn dry by the middle of the work week thanks to longwave ridging building heights into the Upper Great Lakes. Chances of active weather return heading into the weekend as yet another trough digs across the region. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: -Showers and storms expected this Tuesday. Marginal chances of severe weather and heavy rainfall: Aformentioned surface low pressure with attached frontal boundaries will provide enough lift to generate showers and storms this Tuesday and tapering off Tuesday night. SPC remains to keep the CWA under a marginal risk for severe weather mainly due to evidence of an MCS moving across the midwest supported by moderate amounts of effective shear, decent mixed layer CAPE, and strong buoyancy to produce cells. Main hazards are hail and strong gusts but a tornado cant be ruled out. Still a little too early to pinpoint impacts and locations, but a few warnings this Tuesday is definitely in the realm of possibility. As for QPF, amounts will be not uniform due to the convective nature of the setup, but a general half inch or so can be expected. PWAT`s remain near the 90th percentile of climatological max, so localized areas could see higher accumulations over an inch of total rainfall. -Additional chances of active weather return this weekend: Aformentioned riding is set to build Wednesday and Thursday resulting in surface high pressure with temperatures below average for late June. An additional trough will progress to the Great Lakes Region by the Friday/Saturday timeframe returning chances of showers and storms. To early to message impacts or potential rainfall amounts, but best chance of active weather for the entirety of the long term will remain at the beginning and end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Only concern is expected arrival of showers and embedded thunderstorms, along with MVFR producing low clouds, from west to east across the taf locations later tonight into early Tuesday morning. Plenty of uncertainty remains with regards to overall shower/storm coverage and intensity...with growing support most organized and intense storms pass across southwest lower Michigan. Will convey this uncertainty through vicinity thunder wording for now. If a north trend materializes, then stronger storms will be capable of producing brief very gusty winds and heavy rain. Slow improvement expected as we head through later Tuesday morning. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MSB SHORT TERM...MLR LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...MSB