Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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702 FXUS61 KBGM 270722 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 322 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet conditions return to the region through the end of the work week, though a passing shower will be possible across the Mohawk Valley region this morning. The next system moves in this weekend, with periods of rain and thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday into Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 215 AM Update Much quieter, cooler and less humid weather expected for the near term period. Clouds linger through much of the morning hours today before scattering out midday or early afternoon. The afternoon looks to feature plenty of sunshine and drier air mixes down into the boundary layer. Cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70 across Central NY with low 70s to low 80s in NE PA. NW winds will be a little breezy later today, between 8-15 mph with gusts up around 20-25 mph expected. Winds quickly diminish toward sunset and high pressure approaches. Cool and mostly clear with light winds tonight as a 1020mb surface high builds overhead. Overnight lows dip down into the 40s and low 50s areawide. This is 5 to 10 degrees below average for late June, and will be quite refreshing. Sprawling surface high pressure remains in place Friday morning, only slowly translating east into New England by the afternoon hours. After some patchy early morning valley fog, skies will be sunny to mostly sunny through the day. With full sunshine, went 1-2 degrees above the NBM temperature guidance and also lowered surface dew points and RH to account for the dry air mass centered over the region. Forecast highs are in the mid-70s to lower 80s over the area Friday afternoon, this is very close to average. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT/... 315 AM Update... High pressure slides east Friday night with clouds beginning to move in ahead of our next low pressure system. Overnight lows will range in the low 60s across most of the region with some spots in the mid 50s. Rain showers and thunderstorms move in from the west early Saturday morning as deep SW return flow advects moisture into the region. Models continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year with values surpassing 2 inches. This along with a deep warm cloud layer of 12-13K feet suggests conditions are favorable for heavy rainfall that could lead to instances of localized flash flooding. The convective potential at this time continues to be unfavorable as the early arrival of rainfall should limit instability. Rain showers are expected to continue into Saturday night with a relatively warm temperatures as lows will range in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 315 AM Update... Cold front trails off a surface low in Canada kicking off remnant showers and thunderstorms as this system tracks out of our region. Chances of showers are expected mainly east of I-81 Sunday morning and afternoon. Overnight temperatures behind the front will be cooler with lows ranging in the low to upper 50s. Northwest flow over a `warm" Lake Ontario could produce some showers early Sunday night. Added slight chance pops in collaboration with our neighbors, otherwise showers will be short lived and dissipate early Monday morning as dry air wins out. Surface high pressure builds over the midwest Monday, but upper level trough should keep temperatures relatively cool. High pressure shifts east over our region by Tuesday allowing temperatures to warm back up. Under this pattern conditions are expected to remain quiet until midweek. Another surface low over Canada is expected to track east with a warm front dipping into our region by Wednesday kicking off showers. A cold front follows behind with more showers possible for Thursday. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 215 AM Update A complex forecast scenario as the deeper moisture and mid level cloud deck slowly exits from west to east over the next several hours. Behind this, fog may develop but there is some uncertainty if this will happen and how low visibilities will be. Will it be more lower stratus and CIGs, or will fog actually develop. With visibilities already falling below 2SM in portions of western NY where brief clearing took place decided to bring ELM down to 2SM or lower, first in a tempo through 09z, then prevailing 09-12z along with LIFR CIGs. ITH could also see some brief light fog, but higher confidence in a period of IFR stratus and CIGs through 12-13z this morning. RME and BGM look to settle into an IFR CIG later this morning; mainly between 09z to 13z, before lifting to MVFR Fuel Alt, then scattering out to VFR by around 16z. AVP and SYR are forecast to see MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs mainly between 08-15z this morning, then scattering out to VFR here as well. VFR prevails areawide this afternoon, evening and likely most of tonight. Cannot rule out valley fog at ELM, but confidence is low at this time due to low level dry air in place and relatively short nights. Light and variable winds are expected through the mid morning hours. West-northwest winds become stronger by late morning into the afternoon; between 8-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts possible. Winds quickly diminish under 10 kts toward sunset, and under 5 kts heading into the overnight. Outlook... Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible. Monday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL/MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...BTL