113
FXUS64 KBMX 140621
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
121 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 730 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024

A weak inverted trough was located just west of I-65 and was the
length of Central Alabama. A few showers have developed along
this axis as it slowly moves west. The cover of these showers was
less than 10 percent and will leave the pops as is for now. This
activity should not increase in coverage but a few small areas may
see a brief shower. Otherwise, a few clouds are associated with
this boundary and will diminish as the sun goes down. Overnight
lows are still expected in the 60s and 70s. The heat will continue
going up on Friday. Highs are expect in the mid 90s with maximum
heat indices around 100.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024

Heights are rising today in advance of a large 596dm ridge over
the Desert Southwest. The ridge is progged to move eastward across
Texas tomorrow producing a warm and dry north to northeast flow
across Central Alabama. There is a small chance of a shower or
storm this afternoon, mainly east of I-65, resulting from weak
surface convergence associated with easterly surface flow from
high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region, but chances are
generally less than 20 percent. That`s about it in terms of rain
potential as the focus turns towards the rising heat levels. Highs
will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s this afternoon with
overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Plenty of sunshine is
expected again tomorrow as 1000-850mb thicknesses continue to
rise, suggesting highs in the mid to upper 90s. Those with heat
vulnerabilities will need to begin taking extra considerations
tomorrow as heat indices will reach 100F for many locations.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024

Very few changes made to the long term with a 592 ridge set up
over the deep south this weekend. 1000-850 thicknesses, light
flow and sunny skies all support temperatures soaring into the
upper 90s with a few spots likely to touch 100. Heat Index values
will likely be a few degrees warmer, possibly around 105, and a
Heat Advisory can`t be ruled out. With it being a busy weekend,
keeping an eye on those susceptible to heat illness will be a
priority.

The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly northeast of
Alabama by Monday and allow for temperatures to moderate into the
90 to 95 range through midweek during the afternoon with lows in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. This will still be several degrees
above average and more typical of mid summer.

Rain chances will be scattered at best and most locations will
remain dry. Best chances look to remain on Monday.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2024

Cannot rule out localized fog overnight, but chances of impacts
to Vis at any terminal are too low to include. Winds will remain
light and variable through the period, due to presence of high
pressure. Other than a few mid and high level clouds, skies will
be clear.


14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There is a slight chance for a few showers or storms across
eastern Alabama this afternoon, with no rain currently forecast
for Friday and Saturday. 20-foot winds should average less than 7
mph with directional variability through the weekend. Afternoon
minimum RHs are expected to remain above critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     95  69  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    95  70  97  71 /  10   0  10   0
Birmingham  96  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  97  72  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      96  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
Montgomery  97  73  98  75 /   0   0  10   0
Troy        97  72  98  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...14