Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
313 FXUS64 KBMX 261925 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 225 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 111 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024 Contrary to much of the 12Z guidance, a large coverage of showers and thunderstorms have already developed across much of central and eastern Mississippi and into western portions of central Alabama. Once the cu field began developing this morning, it didn`t take long for rain to start falling. This activity is being driven by a large increase in moisture associated with an approaching trough axis and cold front over the Midsouth region. There`s currently a moisture gradient over the area, and there`s still some drier air across the eastern half where dewpoints have once again mixed down into the lower to mid 60s. However, moisture will advect eastward with propagation of the trough, so expect further area-wide development of convection through the afternoon with the highest chance for rain focused generally along and west of I-65. This rain should give us some relief from the heat, but not soon enough as most areas have already reached the mid to upper 90s. Per RAP mesoanalysis, MUCAPE is around 3000-4000 J/kg in our west where dewpoints are in the lower 70s. While shear values are rather weak, some strong downbursts may produce damaging winds, and storms could also produce torrential downpours with PWATs around 2". There`s been an increasing signal of scattered showers and storms continuing overnight and into tomorrow as the cold front and strong PVA move southward into the area. Some hi-res models are even resolving an MCV-like feature over the area early tomorrow morning which would further support additional rain and thunderstorms. So luckily, the odds at receiving beneficial rain seem to be improving for the next 24 hours. The scattered to numerous showers and cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the 80s tomorrow. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024 Most likely period of greater thunderstorm coverage during the long term will come over the weekend (especially Sunday), as the southern Plains upper ridge retreats just far enough west to allow a shortwave trough to come through our area. This shortwave passage is likely to be accompanied plenty of storms, and likely POPs seem justified. Beyond Sunday, a dry low level airmass briefly builds in before the upper ridge recenters itself over the southeast. This results in more mid/upper 90s degree heat, with a non-zero percent chance at triple digits. /61/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024 Convection will spread eastward across the area this afternoon as a cold front moves towards the region. Added TEMPOs at most TAF sites for TSRA with PROB30s continuing overnight. Ceilings are expected to plummet overnight with IFR conditions developing as early as 07-08Z. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Moisture and chances for showers and storms increase across West Alabama through tonight, while RH values in East Alabama will still drop into the 25 to 35 percent range. Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected Thursday into the weekend, with the highest coverage in the southeast. RH values will stay above 45 percent in most areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 88 69 92 / 40 40 10 40 Anniston 72 89 72 91 / 40 50 10 40 Birmingham 72 89 73 93 / 40 40 10 40 Tuscaloosa 71 88 72 92 / 50 40 10 30 Calera 73 89 73 93 / 40 50 10 40 Auburn 73 89 73 90 / 20 60 20 50 Montgomery 73 90 73 92 / 40 60 20 60 Troy 72 89 71 92 / 30 60 30 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM..../61/ AVIATION...86