Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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871 FXUS64 KBMX 160802 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 302 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2024 A broad area of lower heights resides over the southeastern CONUS this morning, as the remnant low of Francine continues to spin over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and a potential tropical cyclone spins just off the South Carolina coast. By Tuesday, the remnants of Francine will become absorbed by the stronger cyclone, moving westward toward the southern Appalachians. Drier air will wrap around the north and west side of the system off the SC coast today, advecting into northeastern Central Alabama. The persistent fetch of moisture and convergence axis over the area will continue to shift southwestward today, with scattered showers being limited to portions of the west and south. Drier conditions expected tonight, with mostly clear skies. If boundary layer winds trend lower, will need to consider fog tonight, given saturated ground conditions. For Tuesday, sunny skies and drier conditions expected for most of the area. As the moisture axis becomes oriented west to east across south Alabama, cannot rule out a couple showers across far southern areas. 14 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 301 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2024 A frontal boundary will push southward through Central AL Tuesday night through Wednesday as the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone become absorbed with the deeper trough across the Eastern US. The boundary could lead to some lower rain chances across our southernmost counties Wednesday afternoon, but most of the rain/thunderstorm activity should remain to our south. A blocking pattern persists Thursday through the end of the week with little meaningful change in our sensible weather. Synoptically, guidance suggests the trough over the Eastern US develops into a cut- off upper level low and may retrograde southwestward over the Coastal Carolinas. If this takes place, we could have a weak backdoor cold front push east to west across Central AL next weekend. Effectively, however, this really only leads to daytime highs going from the upper 80s Wed through Friday to the upper 70s to mid 80s by Sunday. The drier air mass in place with the northerly flow should keep rain chances very low (no mention of measurable rainfall in the forecast) through the weekend. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2024 Multiple cloud decks across the area tonight, but cigs are all above 3kft at forecast terminals. Localized MVFR cigs are confined to southeastern Central Alabama near KDYA and KMEI to start the period, and expect this deck to expand eastward with a period of MVFR heights at TCL and MGM Monday morning. Drier air will work into the area from the northeast, and suppress shower development to the west and south. Chances of rain are too low at any terminal to include at this time, but depending on coverage trends, might need to add SHRA to TCL or MGM for daylight hours on Monday. Cigs will remain predominantly VFR, with easterly winds at 8-10kts through the day. Winds diminish Monday evening. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Lower rain chances will persist across the southern and southwestern portions of Central AL today through Tuesday. Drier conditions with northerly flow is expected for the second half of the week. Min RHs will remain generally at or above 50% through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 59 86 58 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 84 61 86 62 / 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 83 64 86 62 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 82 64 87 63 / 20 10 10 0 Calera 83 64 86 65 / 20 10 10 0 Auburn 82 64 85 65 / 10 10 10 10 Montgomery 82 65 86 66 / 20 10 20 0 Troy 81 64 84 65 / 30 10 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....25/Owen AVIATION...14