882
FXUS64 KBRO 220815
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
315 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

500 mb high pressure centered along the Upper Texas Coast will
produce dry weather for the BRO CWFA today through tonight.
However, some highly isolated spots of convection cannot be ruled
out entirely. On Monday, the mid-level ridge will shift more
towards the east with a weak 500 mb trough easing into the Lone
Star State. Combined with daytime heating and a slight increase in
precipitable water, the result will be isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the five easternmost counties and
the lower Texas coastal waters.

Temperature-wise, no extreme values are expected, with daytime highs
and overnight lows in the near to slightly above normal range. Thus,
neither a HEAT ADVISORY nor a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for heat
indices is likely to be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

An upper level trough will dig south across the Central Plains and
into Northern Texas at the start of the period. As the trough
deepens and shifts further east through the latter half of the
week, a surface cold front will push south into Texas, possibly
approaching the CWA by the end of the week. Rain chances are
expected to increase ahead of the front, with the best rain
chances likely to occur Wednesday. Drier air behind the front
could reduce rain chances by the end of the week. The NHC has a
70% chance for tropical cyclone development over the Northwestern
Caribbean in the next 7 days. The system will likely then move
north into the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR is anticipated at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours.
Light to moderate winds and clear to partly cloudy skies will
occur with precipitation not expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Today through Monday...Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around
16 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly over 2.5
feet with a period of 5 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. Light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail along the
Lower Texas Coast through the period with high pressure in control
over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed.

Monday night through Saturday...Light to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected through Wednesday. Winds and
seas are expected to increase through the later part of the week.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may be needed
Thursday and Friday.

The National Hurricane Center has a 70% chance for Tropical
Cyclone development over the Northwestern Caribbean in the next 7
days. While it is too early to forecast potential impacts for the
Lower Texas Coast, if a system does develop and move into the Gulf
of Mexico, enhanced seas could be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  77  91  77 /  10   0  30  20
HARLINGEN               93  74  92  74 /  10   0  30  10
MCALLEN                 96  77  96  77 /  10   0  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  74  94  74 /  10   0  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  81  88  80 /   0  10  30  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  77  90  76 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...66-Tomaselli