008
FXUS61 KBTV 031948
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
348 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will remain gusty from the south this evening, then
diminish during the overnight hours as a front moves through.
Some scattered rain showers are expected overnight but any
lingering rain showers will come to an end by Thursday morning.
Quiet weather is expected Thursday through Friday before
shower/thunderstorm chances increase Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...Mostly dry weather with gusty south
winds is expected this evening before showers begin overnight.
Wind gusts will be strongest over the Champlain Valley, where
southerly channeled flow will result in continued wind gusts in
the 20 to 30 mph range, locally up to 35 mph near Lake
Champlain. Winds will peak this afternoon into this evening,
before gradually diminishing overnight.

After the passage of today`s warm front, dewpoints will climb this
evening/overnight as we tap into a moisture plume to our
southwest. Consequently, expecting a fairly warm and muggy night
especially for the western portion of our CWA. A cold
front/moisture boundary will move through overnight, accompanied
by some rain showers. These showers will start between 9 PM and
midnight over northern NY, between 11 PM and 3 AM over
northwestern VT, and between 2 AM and 6 AM over southeastern VT.
Instability overnight will be very weak, if anything, so
potential for an embedded thunderstorm appears low. However,
cannot completely rule out a stray rumble of thunder overnight
so have continued with a slight mention of thunder this evening
into early overnight. After 2 AM, potential for thunderstorms
further decreases and have used just shower wording in the rain
forecast for early Thursday morning. Despite the passage of a
frontal boundary overnight, the front is more of a moisture
boundary than anything else. In fact, temperatures won`t fall
much at all as the front moves through. Overnight lows will be
in the upper 60s for the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valley,
and in the low to mid 60s for the northern Adirondacks and
eastern Vermont.

For Thursday morning, the front and associated rain showers will
clear to the east, and most areas will remain dry for the rest of
the day.  However, there will be some vorticity maxima moving
through the progressive flow aloft which could trigger an isolated
shower/tstorm or two. Some very marginal instability will develop,
with stronger instability potential hindered by poor mid-level lapse
rates. In addition, will see drier air working in from the west
which will also limit shower/tstorm potential. All said and
done, have capped PoPs generally in the 5 to 15 percent range
for Thursday. Highs will range from the low to upper 80s, with
dewpoints in the 60s. Heat indices will briefly climb into the
low 90s in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys, but will
remain in the 80s elsewhere. Lows Thursday night will be int he
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will dominate the region
Friday, bringing slightly above normal temperatures. The
experimental heat risk product is showing `moderate` risk for most
of our CWA on Friday and Saturday. Humidity levels will remain
elevated as well during this period, with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s. By late Friday night, the Saint Lawrence Valley will see
PoPs increase in advance of a low pressure passing through.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...The low pressure will continue its
transit through the CWA during the day Saturday. The passage of this
system has the potential to bring the most impactful weather of the
long term forecast. Ensemble forecasts are consistently showing
thermodynamics that would support thunderstorm development, with
1.5" of PWAT these thunderstorms have the potential to create
localized heavy rainfall. The good news is the better dynamics
continue to be south of our CWA.

High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday, bringing back our clear
skies and above normal temperatures. At the far end of the forecast,
one more trough of low pressure will pass over the northeast by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected
through 06Z with just some mid-level clouds spreading over. A
front will move through overnight, accompanied by ceilings
lowering to low VFR/MVFR and some rain showers. Visibilities
will drop to the 4-6SM range within showers, but any further
reductions in visibilities would be very brief. Ceilings will
lift back towards VFR after 15Z. Chances for thunder during the
overnight hours are very low, and have omitted mention of any
TS in the TAFs.

Gusty south winds in the 20 to 30 knot range will continue
through 00Z, then diminish to 10 to 20 knots through 06Z and
under 10 knots after 00Z. Some brief periods of marginal low-
level wind shear are expected overnight as a 30-40 knot
southwesterly low-level jet moves overhead.

Outlook...

Independence Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for south winds in the 25
to 35 knot range. These winds will continue this evening before
diminishing to 15 to 25 knots overnight. Waves today will be in
the 1-3 foot range. Will likely be able to take down the Lake
Wind Advisory in the Thursday morning hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Duell
MARINE...Neiles