146
FXUS61 KBTV 241116
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
716 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our east will keep mainly dry conditions
in place today. The next chances for rain arrive Wednesday through
Thursday as a series of fronts move through, bringing one quarter to
three quarters of an inch of rain. Drier weather then returns by
week`s end. After a brief cool down on Wednesday, temperatures will
return to near normal for the remainder of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday...We continue to see variable cloud
cover across the region this morning. Clouds have become
reestablished across much of the St Lawrence Valley and along
the international border in NY, while much of VT is clear
(outside of one pesky patch of clouds over portions of the
Northeast Kingdom. Expect these cloudier areas will remain so
for a little while this morning, but worst of the overcast
should scatter out once daytime heating/mixing starts in
earnest. Otherwise, patchy fog has developed in the favored
river valleys in eastern VT, and this too will dissipate later
this morning. Have made adjustments to sky cover through the
next few hours to match the latest satellite trends; otherwise
the forecast remains in good shape and no other changes were
needed.

Previous discussion...We`ll see one more dry day today as high
pressure remains entrenched across New England. We should start off
with variable cloud cover; much of VT will see sunshine this
morning, while clouds will be a bit more persistent across the St
Lawrence Valley. Patchy valley fog will linger this morning as well,
particularly in eastern VT. Clouds will gradually increase through
the day, especially this afternoon, as moisture spreads
northeastward ahead of our next system, approaching from the Great
Lakes. Highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Tonight and Wednesday...an upper low will cut off across the Midwest
and pivot toward the Mississippi River Valley while the northern
stream trough pushes eastward across Ontario. The associated surface
low will move from WI/MI into central Ontario, dragging a surface
frontal boundary/trough in its wake. Showers will develop out ahead
of this boundary as moisture lifts northward, moving into the St
Lawrence Valley late tonight, then spreading eastward through early
Wednesday morning. While the showers will initially be fairly
widespread as they move into northern NY, they will wane in coverage
as they move into the Champlain Valley, so expect much of VT could
remain dry for the first part of Wednesday. However, expect another
surge and additional showers to develop late in the day, so even
eastern VT could see a bit of rain by sunset. Still, the heaviest
rainfall amounts will be focused from the Adirondacks westward,
where a quarter to half inch is expected tonight and Wednesday.
Meanwhile, areas from the Champlain Valley eastward will see amounts
generally around a tenth of an inch at best, with the bulk of the
rainfall for those areas holding off until after sunset Wednesday.
Regardless, expect ample cloud cover for the entire region. This
combined with cooler maritime air moving in on southeast flow will
result in a cool day, with highs only in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Winds will be a bit breezy as well, especially in VT as there will
be more opportunity for mixing with the later arrival time of
steadier showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 343 AM EDT Tuesday...An upper level trough will dig into the
region Wednesday night and Thursday. An associated surface low moves
through and strengthens a bit, bringing a period of rain. There look
to be two rounds of rain, a extended one Wednesday night into
Thursday morning associated with a warm front/overrunning, and brief
broken line associated with the cold front later in the day. There
should be a small break between the two. There could be a few
low- topped thunderstorms, particularly over northern New York
where there will be the most instability. However, the
instability will be weak enough that there is not a severe
threat. Winds will be a bit gusty Wednesday night as a 30-40 kt
low level jet moves over, with the strongest gusts likely in the
Champlain Valley where there will be channeled flow. The
strength of the surface winds will depend on if there will be
any breaks in the rain and how much wind will be below the
inversion. Right now, gusts to at least 20-25 mph look likely,
with higher winds on the lake. The surface warm front may not be
able to make it east of the Greens. While temperatures will be
able to rise into the upper 60s and low 70s across northern New
York and the Champlain Valley on Thursday, they look to be stuck
in the low to mid 60s east of the Greens. A few areas may see
high in the upper 50s. Brief northwesterly cyclonic flow
Thursday night looks to keep a few upslope showers and clouds,
but any rainfall amounts from these will be relatively light.
Temperatures will generally fall back into the upper 40s and
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 343 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure builds into the region for
Friday through the weekend. The airmass will have origin from the
central/western US so any of the cold air will remain well to the
north over Canada. Temperatures will continue to be a bit above
climatological normals, with highs generally in the upper 60s to mid
70s, and lows generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Fog formation
is likely in the climatological favored valleys as there should be
light boundary layer winds and clearing skies. The next chance of
rain looks to be in the middle of next week as a cold front passes
through. Overall, this period looks to be a stretch of wonderful
fall weather.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the TAF period. Generally SCT clouds 4000-6000 ft
will persist through the daylight hours, then giving way to
increasing mid-cloud deck ahead of frontal boundary incoming
from the west. Showers will also move in from west to east,
after 06z Wed. Have stayed with VCSH at KMSS/KSLK for now, but
would expect MVFR vis/ceilings possible once showers move in,
toward daybreak Wed. South/southeast winds 5-10 kt, except NE at
KMSS.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Hastings