Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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231 FXUS61 KBTV 260756 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 356 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry and warm conditions today will give way to a soaking rain tonight. Cooler, drier air will filter southward on Thursday, setting the stage for a chillier night. Our pattern of alternating wet and dry periods will continue for the weekend as showers become increasingly likely during the day Saturday into Saturday night. Moderate rainfall amounts are expected with temperatures remaining seasonable. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday...A very active jet stream across the northern US/southern Canada will continue to push weak frontal systems across our area through the next 36 hours. In this period, our flow will be mainly westerly rather than southerly, which will minimize the heat and humidity needed for thunderstorms. So as we saw last night, rain during this period is not expected to be accompanied by thunderstorms. However, good moisture convergence and large scale upper level divergence will be capable of producing decent rainfall rates. This morning there will be a subtle low level boundary approaching that will help turn surface winds more westerly than southerly as they currently. It has sparked a cluster of showers with embedded thunder in southern Ontario, which is moving eastward towards southern St. Lawrence County. As such, while most areas should be partly to mostly sunny, a small portion of the region may see some rain. The main "storm" for the near term will roll through quickly tonight, driven by a vigorous upper level shortwave that is currently over northern Minnesota. It will be steered towards us in the long wave trough over the eastern US. Late this afternoon, far northwestern New York is most favored to see some showers out ahead of the more widespread shower activity, given better surface convergence ahead of a cold front dropping southward. This front will sag southward resulting in low level northwesterly flow across the region while the trough moves overhead, which is why rain looks highly predictable over the area with minimal instability. Precipitation chances ramp up to near 100% between 10 PM and 2 AM, with rain gradually shifting eastward and out of the area during the early morning hours. Steadiest and heaviest rain probably will be over our southern areas, but it is always difficult to pinpoint this type of thing even in the near term. NBM mean 6 hour precipitation amounts are generally in the 0.2" to 0.3" range, with 24 hour totals through 8 AM Thursday of 0.6" to 0.9" at the 75th percentile looking like a reasonable heaviest amount. So no significant hydrological impacts are expected. Tomorrow behind the front and shortwave trough, some shallow, scattered showers should develop thanks to northwest flow and the enhanced orographic lift associated with our terrain. As cold air advection continues to dry us out during the day and mid level heights rise, forcing for precipitation will wane as skies trend sunny. High temperatures will be notably cooler than the last couple of days, roughly 10 degrees below today`s forecast highs. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 326 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall nearly perfect late June wx expected from Thurs night thru Friday with 1020mb high pres directly overhead by 12z Friday. Still monitoring the potential for some patchy valley fog/br btwn 07-11z Friday associated with clear skies, light bl winds, and lingering low level moisture from recent rainfall. Still some question with wind profiles as soundings show 10 to 15 knots just off the deck and most areas will be 12 to 18 hrs removed from rainfall. So have not included in fcst attm. Next target of opportunity wl be in the low temp department on Friday morning, as NBM at SLK is calling for 42F, thinking mid/upper 30s is likely, as latest MAV/MET is 33/36 respectively. Some localized patchy frost is possible near SLK early Friday morning as the turn has occurred. Friday continues to look like a classic North Country Chamber of Commerce type day with plenty of sunshine, comfortable temps and low humidity. Highs mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 326 AM EDT Wednesday...Large scale synoptic pattern features fast/progressively flow aloft acrs the northern CONUS, with several embedded s/w`s and associated boundaries. This wl result in an unsettled scenario for the upcoming weekend with intervals of showers likely both Sat and Sun, but neither day wl be a complete washout. Sunday looks a bit drier with less areal coverage of precip, given developing dry layer btwn 850- 500mb, but instability is slightly better on Sunday, supporting potential for a few thunderstorms. Profiles on Sat are rather stable looking with deep layer moisture in place and pw values in the 1.75 to 2.0 by 00z Sunday. A cool and unsettled day is likely on Saturday with breezy south/southwest winds, especially SLV/CPV. Based on model agreement, confidence is increasing of many areas experiencing a wetting rainfall on Sat/Sat night, with greatest potential and highest pops btwn 00-06z Sat night. Feel threat for flash flooding is <10% attm, but potential for at least 0.5 inch of qpf in heavier showers is 60 to 70% acrs portions of our cwa on Sat into Sunday, with WPC maintaining a marginal risk in their latest day 4 ERO. Highs on Sat look to struggle in the mid 60s mtns to mid 70s warmest valley locations, given overcast skies and areas of showers. Temps fall very little Sat night with clouds/precip and southerly winds prevailing, along with increasing dwpts, anticipate lows 60s to locally near 70F. Additional s/w energy and secondary cold frnt feature swings acrs our cwa on Monday with potential for additional showers, before sfc high pres with cooler/drier wx returns for the middle of next week. Temps warm back into the mid 70s to lower 80s for Sunday, with some breaks in the clouds, but cool back into the upper 60s to mid 70s on Monday with lows generally upper 40s to near 60F. No long duration heat waves or widespread hazardous wx is anticipated over the next 4 to 7 days based on our crnt fcst. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected, except at SLK where ceilings near 3000 feet will lower over the next few hours. There is about a 40% chance of IFR conditions, primarily between 09Z and 11Z, so have included a tempo group there. Otherwise, scattered showers should have minimal operational impact as they diminish over the next few hours. Clearing still expected between 12-15z across the area with some clouds and widespread SHRA rapidly overspreading the airspace between 00Z and 03Z. Some MVFR conditions associated with any heavier showers will be possible. South/southwest winds will shift westerly between 12 and 15Z, with some gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range expected through about 21Z, then tend to diminish as they become more northwesterly, especially in the 03Z to 06Z period. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Kutikoff