Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
569 FXUS65 KBYZ 140746 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 146 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday... Satellite imagery shows a dry westerly flow over the region, while upstream there is a deepening trof along the BC/WA coast. While the Pacific trof will impact us eventually, the weekend will be dry and warmer as the flow aloft backs from W to SW over the next 36 hours. Look for temps to max out in the mid 70s to lower 80s today, then 80s to near 90F Sunday. An isolated shower is possible over the Beartooth-Absarokas by late Sunday as we begin to see an increase in high level monsoon moisture, which will push pwats back above normal for mid-September. Fire weather concerns have alleviated with the recent cool/wet weather, but we will see progressively lower humidities along with the warmer temps the next two days. Min RHs should reach the teens most areas on Sunday. Winds overall will remain in check, but E-SE winds should increase to 10-20 mph on Sunday. Regarding smoke, there was very little fire activity in ID and western MT yesterday so our skies will remain haze-free (for now). The exception could be potential smoke from the Short Draw Fire in southern Powder River County, especially Sunday when surface winds turn to the E-SE. Something to watch. JKL Monday through Saturday... As an upper level low approaches from the west into Monday, chances for precip will increase for areas across the western mountains and foothills (30-60% chance). As the low lifts through western MT Tuesday and Wednesday, these same western areas have the best chances for beneficial precip as models have a dry slot over south-central and southeast MT with banded precip over the far east. With that, areas west of Billings have a 40-60% chance of at least half an inch of precip with areas east at a 10-30% chance Monday through Wednesday. With this system, an associated frontal passage is forecasted to move through late Tuesday bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms. Following the front, Wednesday will be cool and breezy, especially along the western mountains and foothills. Troughing over the western US will keep conditions cool and unsettled with low PoPs in the forecast through Saturday. Snow levels will drop to 9-10,000 ft Tuesday night, so check the forecast before heading into high country. High temperatures will be in the 70s/80s Monday, 60s west ot 80s east Tuesday and 60s/70s Wednesday through Friday. TS && .AVIATION... Look for widespread VFR over the next 24 hours, with periodic high clouds. Dry westerly flow aloft will back to the SW by early Sunday. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 079 050/085 054/082 054/077 051/073 048/072 048/070 0/B 00/U 11/B 47/T 52/W 12/W 33/W LVM 077 043/083 047/080 047/068 043/067 040/068 040/067 0/B 00/B 24/T 78/T 74/W 24/W 34/W HDN 080 046/088 051/084 051/081 048/075 046/074 046/071 0/B 00/U 00/B 35/W 52/W 12/W 33/W MLS 080 049/086 059/088 057/083 053/073 049/072 049/070 0/B 00/U 01/U 13/W 62/W 11/B 33/W 4BQ 083 048/088 060/091 058/087 052/075 050/075 049/070 0/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 41/U 12/W 33/W BHK 083 048/087 057/088 057/088 051/075 048/075 047/070 0/B 00/U 11/U 13/W 51/U 12/W 33/W SHR 081 044/089 051/087 051/083 044/075 043/075 043/071 0/U 00/U 01/B 23/W 31/U 13/W 34/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings