Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
059 FXUS65 KBYZ 140204 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 804 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm (highs in 90s) and dry into Monday. - Much cooler with a good chance of widespread precipitation Monday night through Wednesday. - Conditions become dry with highs near normal (mid 80s to low 90s) by the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Satellite imagery shows a dry zonal flow over the region. Strongest forcing and greatest potential for convection tonight will ride along the Canada/MT border, but looking to our west there is an area of weak t-storms in central ID northeast of Sun Valley. Local radar shows a couple weak cells trying to develop over the Beartooths. It appears there is at least potential for isolated showers and weak t-storms over our southwest mountains between now and midnight or so. Otherwise, it will be a dry and mild night with low temps in the 50s and 60s. Monday will be pre- frontal and warmer with temps well into the 90s. Canadian front`s arrival will help to trigger late day t-storms capable of producing gusty winds. One thing to watch is tonight`s convection along the Canadian border and if it results in a push of N-NE winds into southeast MT faster than most models suggest. As it stands, the GFS continues to show NE winds arriving before the other models, and this may be correct given what is happening to our north. This wind shift will impact pre-frontal winds/temps/RHs tomorrow, as well as convective initiation. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Rest of Today through Tuesday Night... Temperatures, for better or worse, have behaved as expected and climbed into the low 90s this afternoon as upper ridging stays over the region. Satellite imagery shows some Convective Initiation occurring over Yellowstone and subtly getting into the Beartooths, showcasing the potential for a storm or two to still occur over the mountains later this afternoon and evening. Monday will see slightly warmer temperatures, but with a bit more moisture providing higher CAPE across the area, bringing about isolated severe storm potential, especially in the far southeast, and along the Beartooth Foothills through Billings. The main threat associated with these storms will be gusts up to 60 mph due to a lack of shear. Timing for the cold front is more confined to the late afternoon and evening, quickly ushering in colder temperatures and rain that will occur through the mid-week. Heaviest rain won`t begin until Tuesday afternoon and persist into the night. Vertz Wednesday through Sunday... As the system from Tuesday continues to move through the region, Wednesday will remain cool with an increased chance of precipitation. Models disagree on how much moisture will remain over the region Wednesday, with anywhere from near normal (0.8") to 150% of normal (1.2"), leading to model spreads between a couple tenths of an inch to nearly 1 inch of precip. The second option is more typical of a spring system than mid-July, but there remains a 10-20% chance for these higher values east of Billings. Otherwise, the more likely solution is for 0.1-0.3" where showers develop, with a few pockets of higher amounts under the stronger showers. While thunderstorms will be possible, conditions are not favorable for any strong storms to develop. Models have trended towards the system exiting late Wednesday/early Thursday morning, with another wave remaining north of the region along the Canadian border. This will keep Thursday drier and allow temperatures to begin to warm. Beyond Thursday, there is more uncertainty as to how the pattern will resolve, although there is good agreement for downsloping conditions warming temperatures back to near seasonal values. High temperatures Wendesday will be in the 60s to near 70. Then, temperatures are expected to warm each day, reaching near normal (mid 80s to low 90s) by the weekend. Archer && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through Monday afternoon. After 3 PM Monday, scattered (30-60%) showers and thunderstorms will move across the region. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected around these thunderstorms. Archer/Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 065/097 060/066 055/064 050/078 056/083 060/086 061/091 02/T 47/T 86/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U LVM 056/094 053/067 048/068 045/081 049/086 052/087 053/090 01/U 58/T 85/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U HDN 060/097 060/068 054/065 047/079 053/084 058/087 057/092 02/T 56/T 86/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U MLS 064/098 060/068 053/063 050/076 055/082 059/086 060/091 00/U 46/T 87/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/B 4BQ 064/097 064/072 055/064 051/076 057/081 060/084 061/090 00/U 45/T 87/T 31/B 21/U 21/B 21/U BHK 060/096 056/065 048/063 045/073 051/079 054/083 057/088 00/U 35/T 76/T 31/B 21/U 11/U 11/U SHR 057/096 058/071 051/067 046/080 052/084 054/086 055/090 02/T 47/T 87/T 21/U 11/U 11/B 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings