Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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704 FXUS62 KCAE 231843 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 243 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures are expected to continue for the next several days. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur each afternoon and evening, with better rain chances likely toward the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGE: - Heat continues to build today with max heat indices between 100-105F. Cumulus continue to build as the remains of the tropical wave move through the CHS area and will move northeastward through tonight. Dry air in the mid and upper level continues to suppress convection in the eastern Midlands and toward the coast while moistening upper levels over the western Midlands and northern CSRA are resulting in showers and thunderstorms developing. Temperatures are also pushing into the low and mid 90s with heat index values around 100. With another few degrees of warming expect most locations in the mid and upper 90s this afternoon with heat index values up to 105. Through the remainder of the afternoon expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue developing however with little upper level support the potential for severe weather remains low however some gusty winds around thunderstorms will be possible. With sunset the convection will diminish however a few cells could continue into the late evening hours. Overnight a frontal boundary will move toward the area from the northwest and is expected to arrive toward daybreak Monday. Models continue to weaken this feature as it moves into the area and without daytime heating to aid it do not anticipate any showers or thunderstorms. With partly to mostly cloudy skies expected overnight and increasing clouds toward daybreak overnight lows will be in the mid 70s for most locations. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough over the Great Lakes will deepen and move east into New England on Monday. A weak pre-frontal trough may bring a few showers to the area ahead of the main boundary in association with an axis of higher moisture. This moisture will be mostly above the surface, as dewpoints won`t take too much of a hit just yet. The boundary may stall somewhere across the central part of the state, where additional convection may initiate Monday afternoon mainly to the east in response to strong daytime heating. As the upper trough finally pushes through, downsloping is progged to cool dewpoints off into the 60s, or perhaps upper 50s toward the upstate Monday evening into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain hot with high temps in the mid to upper 90s. With afternoon dewpoints in the 60s, max heat indices are forecast around 105 degrees. For areas fortunate enough to get a shower or thunderstorm, temperatures could be slightly cooler. SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms mainly east of the I-95 corridor, mainly for gusty winds with dry air aloft. Any convection should diminish in the evening with overnight low temps in the low 70s. Best moisture remains relegated to the eastern CWA on Tuesday with that lingering boundary still not ready to move out. With lower dewpoints, head indices are expected to remain below or perhaps right at 100 despite highs in the mid to upper 90s. Additional showers and thunderstorms may occur mainly southeast of I-20 where the best moisture will be. Another night of mild lows with temperatures in the low 70s as diurnally driven convection dissipates. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another upper trough moves through on Wednesday with high pressure aloft building back over the region late in the week. The associated front is expected to weaken a bit as it crosses the Appalachians, but there should still be an increased risk for showers and thunderstorms, at least compared to earlier in the week. Best rain chances appear to be Thursday and Thursday night, but it should be mentioned that the timing of the front remains in question, so there is low confidence regarding any severe weather threat. Outside of this feature, scattered diurnally driven convection is expected each afternoon with the heat continuing to be a nuisance; highs in the upper 90s each afternoon. Lows will also be mild in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through most of the TAF period with brief restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms. Cumulus have developed into scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area and with a few more hours of heating expect additional cells to develop. Coverage remains limited so have only included VCSH at AGS/DNL due to cells nearby. Will continue to monitor and add at additional terminals as needed. Convection will diminish with sunset however a few thunderstorms could linger into the late evening and early overnight hours. A weak frontal boundary will move into the area from the northwest toward daybreak. This feature appears dry so do not have any mention of showers or thunderstorms with passage. Clouds will be increasing during the early morning so do not expect fog to develop. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions Tuesday through Friday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$