086
FXUS61 KCLE 262355
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
755 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves southeast across the area this evening and
early tonight. High pressure will return on Thursday and Friday
before another low pressure system impacts the area on
Saturday. High pressure builds back in Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
7:55 PM Update...
Secondary cold front/surface trough will sag southward across
northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania overnight tonight.
Lingering low level moisture as evident by 925mb RH values
exceeding 90% indicate that low stratus will develop across much
of the region overnight. High pressure builds overhead for
Thursday and will allow for any left over cloud cover to
gradually dissipate through the afternoon.

Previous discussion...
An upper-level trough and associated surface low/cold front are
progressing southeast across the area with the trough axis with
the cold front moving southeast of the forecast area sometime
this evening into early tonight. Areawide rain with isolated
thunderstorms is observed right now, with rain gradually ending
from northwest to Southeast this evening. A secondary cold
front or surface trough moves south across the area late
tonight, with allow stratus possibly building in late tonight
into Thursday morning. Model guidance has been trending towards
a little bit more cloud cover than previously expected for
Thursday morning. There also could be patchy fog but there is
less confidence with that.

High pressure gradually builds in Thursday with the highs
centered over the area by Thursday night. This airmass is fairly
cool with highs down into the 70s Thursday afternoon (below
normal by about 5-7 degrees) and then down into the 50s Thursday
night. Might even see a couple spots in inland Northwest
Pennsylvania dipping below 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main concern for the short term period will be on Saturday as a cold
front moves east through the area. Favorable shear of 35 to perhaps
40 knots will be in place ahead of the front to sustain organized
convection. However, a pre-frontal trough appears to arrive Saturday
morning across southeast OH which could limit available instability
with lingering precipitation and cloud cover. Mid-level lapse rates
are also expected to be poor and generally less than 6 C/km. Will be
something to watch over the next forecast iterations as GEFS machine
learning continues to highlight the potential.

Otherwise, Friday looks to be quiet as high pressure slides east
into New England. Seasonable weather is expected with highs in the
low to mid-80s as a warm front lifts north across the area.
Precipitation chances may begin to increase late Friday night as the
aforementioned system begins to enter the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly quiet weather is expected through the long term period as
more seasonable weather returns behind a cold front and high
pressure settles back in across the Great Lakes through Tuesday.
Another upper-level trough is expected to move east through the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Tuesday into Wednesday which could
bring the next chance for organized convection across the area.

Temperatures will begin below average in the 70s on Sunday and
Monday, becoming average to above average by Tuesday into Wednesday
with highs increasing into the 80s to perhaps near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Majority of terminals have improved back to VFR as showers and
isolated thunderstorms along a cold front continue to track east
out of the local area. Brief period of VFR will come to and end
this evening as very moist lower levels will allow for low
stratus and/or patchy fog to develop across nearly every
terminal. Low stratus will primarily bring conditions to MVFR
with areas of IFR possible at interior and eastern TAF sites.
High pressure builds overhead through the TAF period and will
allow for any lingering low stratus or patchy fog to dissipate
by the afternoon Thursday.

Southwesterly flow 5-8 knots will become northerly at 8-10 knots
through the period as the high builds overhead from the
northwest.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
For the most part, marine conditions will be quiet through much of
the week. Small craft conditions may return on Sunday behind a cold
front as winds shift towards the northwest to north, 15 to 20 knots.
Otherwise, a mix of generally light off and onshore flow is expected
through the period. Only minor concern may be behind a cold front
tonight, as winds shift towards the north with a very brief window
of 15 to 20 knots possible late tonight into Thursday morning. Winds
appear to quickly decrease back to 10 to 15 knots by late Thursday
morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Kahn