538
FXUS64 KCRP 162313
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
613 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing shower and thunderstorms chance beginning Monday

The National Hurricane Center has given the system in the
Southwestern Gulf of Mexico a HIGH 70% chance of development over
the next 7 days with a 30% chance of development over the next 2
days. This situation will be closely monitored for future updates as
we receive them. With our area being right in middle of two upper
level ridges, moisture will continue to pool into the area (PWATs ~2
inches). This will likely lead to some diurnally driven pop-up
showers and thunderstorms mainly in the waters with a low to medium
chance along the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. As this
system enters the Gulf, hazardous marine and coastal conditions will
likely develop beginning sometime late Monday going into Tuesday.

With the influx of moisture, heat stress conditions are possible
again Monday mainly in the Brush Country and portions of the
southern Coastal Bend. Confidence in this reaching heat advisory
criteria for more than 2 hours is low at this time however.

A tropical funnel cloud or two could for again tomorrow morning.
This would be due to conditions being similar to what they have been
the previous few mornings. If they develop they are expected to be
very brief and shouldn`t cause any damage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical
development.

- Increasing moisture leading to higher rain chances and
potential for flooding and river flooding through the week.

- Increasing risk of rip currents and coastal flooding.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of
disturbed weather across the Yucatan Peninsula. There is a high 70%
chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm developing across
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by mid week. It is still too early
to know if any tropical systems will approach S TX at this time.
Regardless, heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding is
a major concern for S TX.

Based on satellite, PWATs across a large portion of the central gulf
are around 2 inches. Farther south, PWATs are around 2.6 inches. A
moderate to strong east to southeast low level flow will help draw
this moisture across S TX over the next several days. Models
indicate PWATs ranging from 2-2.5 inches across S TX by late Monday
into Tuesday. PWATs could reach 3 inches, per the GFS, by Wednesday
across southern portions of S TX.

A surface to mid level tropical wave/inverted trough is progged to
approach the Texas coast from the east on Tuesday and track across
TX Wed/Thu. The trough combined with the deep tropical moisture will
lead to a high (up to 90%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Tue
through Thu. Based on latest model solutions, the heaviest and most
widespread rainfall with the potential for flash flooding looks to
be Wed-Thu. Rivers and creeks may also flood.

At this time, total rainfall amounts Monday through Friday are
expected to range from 5 to 8 inches along and east of I37 and 3 to
6 inches west of I37. The Weather Prediction Center has a slight
(15%-40%) risk of excessive rainfall across the Victoria Crossroads
and along the Coastal Bend Tuesday. The slight risk of excessive
rainfall covers all of S TX on Wednesday. By Thursday, the Rio
Grande Plains has a slight risk with the remainder of S TX in a
Marginal (5%) risk.

By Thu/Fri, the trough is progged to be west of the area with rain
chances decreasing to medium to high (40-60%) Friday and a low to
medium (20-50%) chance over the weekend. The additional rain fall
through the weekend, may continue to produce flooding impacts.

There is also an increased risk of rip currents and coastal flooding
through the week due to strong southeast to east winds expected
across the gulf waters, especially if a tropical system does develop
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and produces long period
swells. The latest PETSS shows tide levels at Aransas Pass up to 2ft
MSL (advisory conditions) by early Tue morning and approaching 3ft
MSL (warning conditions) early Wed morning.

There still remains uncertainty with timing and location of the
heaviest rainfall and whether S TX will be impacted by a tropical
system this week, so please continue to monitor the latest updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through a majority of the
TAF period. Brief MVFR conditions due to CIGs and/or VSBYs will be
possible Monday morning generally between 08-13Z. Gusty winds this
evening will relax overnight. Winds are expected to be a 2-5KT
stronger Monday with gusts around 25-28KT by afternoon/evening.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be increasing through
the day Monday, mainly across the Coastal Bend with VCT and CRP
having the best chance Monday. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be
possible with the convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will increase to moderate this
evening and persist through the day Monday. Strong onshore winds
expected Tuesday with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely
through Friday. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible
Wednesday. Wave heights are expected to increase to 8-13 feet
across the coastal waters this week, especially if a tropical
depression or tropical storm develops in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has a high, 70% chance of
development in the next 7 days. Regardless of tropical
development, deep moisture will move into the area resulting in a
50-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  93  79  91 /  10  40  30  60
Victoria          77  92  76  89 /  10  50  20  60
Laredo            78 101  78  98 /   0   0   0  20
Alice             77  97  77  93 /   0  20  20  60
Rockport          82  93  82  91 /  30  50  50  70
Cotulla           79 102  79  99 /   0   0   0  20
Kingsville        79  96  77  91 /  10  30  30  60
Navy Corpus       83  91  82  90 /  40  50  50  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE/81