Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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167 FXUS64 KCRP 220807 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 307 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Isolated convection continues over the waters early this morning, and we should see at least a modest increase in coverage over the area today. Deterministic global model guidance and NBM indicate a fairly high prob of precip today, however meso models are substantially lower, keeping the bulk of the activity south. Will lean more toward the high res guidance as ridging builds down over South Texas. Still have chance Pops mainly in southern tier of counties, and isolated elsewhere, but think more activity will be south. This convection is associated with a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche that has a 50% chance of development into a tropical depression this weekend. If it develops, the aforementioned ridge would keep the system south, and expect any impacts reaching this far north would be limited. Wind field is much smaller than what we just saw with Alberto, thus less wind here, and less opportunity for marine concerns to grow as well. Speaking of marine concerns, we are still seeing elevated water levels, especially in the bays, thus the coastal flood advisory continues. The extra water that pushed into the bays will take more time to exit those bays through just a few locations between islands. Add in the fact that moderate long period swells continue to push toward the coast, that only slows the water from receding. Will also continue a high risk of rip currents along gulf facing beached due to the same swells. Temperatures continue to not be a big talking point in the short term period, which is certainly a plus for this time of year. High temperatures will remain in the lower 90s with lows in the 70s. Heat index values will increase to between 105 and 109 tomorrow as dewpoints increase. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat returns with a moderate to major risk for heat- related impacts The synoptic pattern over the long term period will feature a mid- level high over west TX Sunday evening that expands over our CWA resulting in increasing pressure aloft. The high pressure system will slowly retrograde westward to the Desert Southwest throughout the week. The area of high pressure will promote clearer skies and warmer temperatures. Precipitation chances remain in the forecast almost daily next week as PWAT`s remain well above normal (~+2SD) with GEFS Mean ensemble values for the forecasted period approaching normal levels mid-week to around 1.70". There`s a low to medium (20-55%) chance for showers/thunderstorms Monday, followed by low-end chances (~15-25%) through the end of the period. As our region is under the influence of high pressure, increasing lower level temperatures and moisture will lead to rising heat index values to around 110 degrees over the southern Coastal Bend to the Coastal Plains and Brush Country around mid-week through the end of the period. These conditions will result in a moderate risk for heat- related impacts across the region for much of next week but will introduce a Major risk toward the end of the week. Lastly, Minor coastal flooding will continue to be a concern at least through mid-week. P-ETSS guidance has seas gradually decreasing but still around ~2 ft MSL. Overall, not much change in the forecast but there is still model uncertainty regarding the location and strength of the high pressure system and the area of low pressure over the Gulf. Please stay tuned as more details emerge over the coming days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF cycle, with brief periods of MVFR ceilings for Brush Country between 10Z and 14Z. There is also a low chance for some patchy fog over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads between 09Z and 14Z so a TEMPO for MVFR visibility has been included. Otherwise, light to moderate east to southeast winds are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Southeasterly winds increase to moderate levels today as a disturbance passes in the Bay of Campeche. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and again tomorrow. Expect mainly a weak to moderate onshore flow to persist Sunday through next week accompanied by a low to medium chance (30-45%) of showers and thunderstorms Monday, followed by a low (15-25%) chance for showers the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 78 91 79 / 30 40 70 10 Victoria 90 75 91 76 / 10 10 50 0 Laredo 91 76 91 76 / 50 30 70 10 Alice 90 76 91 75 / 30 30 70 10 Rockport 91 80 91 81 / 20 40 60 10 Cotulla 93 77 93 78 / 20 10 40 0 Kingsville 90 77 91 78 / 50 40 70 10 Navy Corpus 88 81 89 82 / 30 50 70 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH/83 LONG TERM....BF/80 AVIATION...LS