Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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086 FXUS64 KCRP 261809 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 109 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Key Messages: - Brief periods of heat index values of 105-111 degrees this afternoon - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday As the eastern periphery of the mid to upper level ridge located in the West Texas region weakens today through tomorrow, a couple of shortwaves are expected to wrap around it, increasing our rain chances. The vorticity associated with the weak shortwave tomorrow will interact with PWAT of 2.05-2.15" which will result in low (less than 25%) chances of light showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. With near normal temperatures continuing today and tomorrow, heat index values will remain at reasonable levels for late June. Heat index values will generally remain between 105-109 degrees for much of the day with brief periods of heat indices increasing to 110-112 degrees from 1-5 pm this afternoon. With heat indices expected to bounce above and below 110 degrees this afternoon, have opted not to issue a Heat Advisory at this time, however, dewpoints will need to be closely monitored as any increase in dewpoints could lead to advisory conditions. With waters in the bays still receding from the impact`s of Tropical Storm Alberto, dangerous currents could continue to linger through Thursday. Therefore, have gone with a moderate risk of rip currents through Thursday. Please use caution if entering the waters, especially near piers and jetties where the threat it the greatest. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Overall, not too much change with this long term forecast update. The upper level ridge will remain anchored in place aloft. An inverted trough will cut into the southern extent of the ridge late Thursday into Friday. This will provide some low end rain chances across the region. Without much surface forcing, our greatest rain chances will be across the Coastal Bend as a low level convergence axis becomes established along the coast. The upper level ridge axis will shift towards the southeastern CONUS late in the weekend. Meanwhile, a tropical wave will be traveling from the Atlantic towards the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC currently has a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days as conditions could become more conducive for gradual development late this week. If this wave makes into the SW Gulf, we could see a swath of deep tropical moisture spread across the region. This would ramp up our rain chances on Sunday. Rain chances would likely continue into early next week. Taking a look at our temps, highs will generally settle into the low 90s to around 100 degrees. Afternoon heat indices will climb into the 105-110 range. A few spots across the southern Coastal Bend may see heat indices enter the 110-114 range at times. This will lead to a moderate risk of heat-related impacts for much of the long term period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Light showers are dissipating over the Victoria Crossroads as they move north-northeastward early this afternoon. Winds will generally be light (less than 12 knots) out of the south to southeast through the TAF period with occasional gusts over 12 knots over the Brush Country impacting COT/LRD. Patchy fog may develop over the Coastal Plains between 10-14Z impacting VCT/LRD with MVFR ceiling potential over the western Brush Country impacting LRD/COT. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with low chances of rain returning near the end of the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Weak to moderate flow will persist through late this week before increasing to moderate Friday afternoon through Saturday. There is a low to medium, 20-40%, chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through the weekend, potentially lingering into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 79 94 81 / 20 0 20 0 Victoria 94 77 94 78 / 20 0 20 0 Laredo 99 78 99 79 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 96 76 97 78 / 0 0 20 0 Rockport 94 82 93 82 / 20 0 20 10 Cotulla 102 79 102 79 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 94 78 95 79 / 10 0 20 0 Navy Corpus 92 83 92 83 / 20 0 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ241>244. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCP LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...EMF/94