780
ACUS48 KWNS 240854
SWOD48
SPC AC 240852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Thursday: Northern High Plains...
A rather amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
move from the Northwest toward the northern Rockies on Thursday,
reaching the northern High Plains later Thursday night. A surface
low is forecast to deepen across eastern MT during the day, and then
move eastward across the Dakotas Thursday night.

Some uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and placement of
organized severe-thunderstorm potential, due to the relatively late
shortwave arrival and a tendency for stronger mid/upper-level flow
to be displaced from the warm sector. However, modest low-level
moisture return will support potential for moderate destabilization,
in conjunction with some increase in deep-layer flow/shear. Some
potential for strong to severe storms is evident from eastern MT
into the western and possibly central Dakotas, and probabilities
will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

...D5/Friday: Northern/central Plains into the upper Midwest...
The shortwave trough and related surface low that affect the
northern High Plains on Thursday will move eastward on Friday, as a
trailing cold front moves across parts of the central Plains. A warm
front will move northward in advance of the surface low across parts
of MN/WI. Details regarding the northward extent of stronger
destabilization remain uncertain, with some potential for rather
extensive early-day convection within a warm-advection regime.
However, an organized severe-thunderstorm threat could eventually
evolve in conjunction with the surface low and warm front across
MN/WI, and also potentially along the cold front into parts of Iowa
and the central Plains.

...D6/Saturday - D8/Monday...
Predictability begins to wane by D6/Saturday regarding evolution of
the upper pattern and surface features across the CONUS. The cold
front that moves across parts of the Great Plains and Midwest on
Friday is generally forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes
and Northeast on Saturday. Guidance varies regarding the extent of
prefrontal destabilization and strength of deep-layer flow, but
strong to potentially severe storms could develop along the front by
Saturday afternoon/evening.

Another mid/upper-level trough may move from the Northwest across
the northern Rockies and High Plains Sunday into Monday, though
considerable uncertainty remains regarding the amplitude/timing of
this trough and any related severe potential into early next week.

..Dean.. 06/24/2024