Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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965 FXUS63 KDDC 260921 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 421 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front passage early this morning leading to pull back in temperature and a breezy northeast wind 15 to 25 mph. - First of several nights of thunderstorm systems tonight as a system is likely to develop across eastern Colorado and thrive through the overnight hours -- favoring mainly along/north of Highway 50. - Thursday late afternoon/evening likely the best chance for organized severe thunderstorms with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across much of our southwest Kansas region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Multiple rounds of thunderstorms, including a few sizable mesoscale convective systems, will be the theme much of the forecast period tonight through the end of the weekend. It all begins thanks to a cold frontal passage this morning. Said cold front was approaching west central Kansas at 08Z (3 AM CDT), which will be felt by an increase in northeast winds this morning. The front will clear the entire forecast area, including the Red Hills of southern Comanche- Barber County, by midday. Winds will remain northeast, gradually becoming east by late afternoon into the evening. Initial thunderstorm development will occur along the frontal zone around the Raton-Black Mesa region just southwest of our forecast area. HREF convective mean/probability fields show strong signal of this initial development with HREF 40+ dBZ Composite Reflectivity 25km neighborhood probabilities (MCS Proxy) exceeding 40% late afternoon through early evening across far northeastern NM into the western Oklahoma Panhandle. This signal diminishes in the HREF later in the evening, likely due to SBCAPE diminishing after sunset downstream of this region. The focus will then shift northwest toward east-central Colorado as the main MCS signal in the HREF develops. Mean cloud-bearing winds favor an east-southeast track of late night MCS across west-central and southwest KS through the night. Interestingly, the aforementioned MCS Proxy field shows an expanding 40% area overnight (around 09Z), so there is rather high confidence in an MCS thriving all the way to sunrise as a prospective MCS approaches another surge in low level moisture (dewpoints upper 60s to lower 70s advecting west into western KS). Early Thursday morning, an MCS will most likely be pushing east of our forecast area into central/south central Kansas, but abundant low level moisture will be in place in the wake of the MCS. HREF means show a good SBCAPE signal developing as temperatures warm into the 80s to the south of where remnant stratus clouds will likely exist. A more aggressive stratus cloud forecast, using 75th percentile data, would suggest broken-overcast stratus hanging on through early afternoon north of roughly Dighton to La Crosse line. This would likely set up a low level frontogenetic zone which could enhance severe risk in a smaller mesoscale region within SPC`s latest SWODY2 Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) region. Going forward Thursday and beyond using latest 00Z 100-member Grand Ensemble 6hr QPF > 0.10" probabilities, track of Thursday through Friday morning favors west central KS through north central KS and beyond into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This is a fairly strong signal in the 100-member Grand Ensemble. This MCS would likely leave a formidable outflow boundary/front in its wake with Grand Ensemble mean 10-meter winds showing northerly component winds down into the western half of Kansas on Friday. This latest global ensemble signal would favor cooler temperatures than what our latest official forecast calls for (which is currently upper 90s/lower 100s), so look for possible downward trend in Friday temps. There isn`t a real strong MCS signal Friday/Friday Night across western/southwestern Kansas, so a break in the action on Friday evening is quite possible. However, a MCS signal returns late Saturday/Saturday Night as mean 10-meter winds in the latest Grand Ensemble suggests increasing easterly upslope component with SBCAPE axis focused across the southern third of Kansas into southeastern Colorado. This pattern could favor a rather sizable MCS late Saturday evening/night across the southern half of our DDC forecast area down into the Texas panhandle/northern Oklahoma. Toward the end of the 7-day forecast period, global models/ensemble systems favor a strong system moving east across the northern Great Plains, which would argue for at least one real hot day in the downslope southwesterly flow early next week before another cold front comes down around July 2-3 time frame. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 109 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Light winds and VFR flight category will continue through the night ahead of a cold front. Cold front passage around/shortly after sunrise Wednesday will result in an increase in northeast winds 15 to 20 knots sustained. Northeast winds of this magnitude will likely persist for a 3 to 5 hour period with winds gradually decreasing through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely move east across far western Kansas late in this TAF period Wednesday evening, but we will not include in this 06Z synoptic TAF set. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid