541
FXUS63 KDDC 270815
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
315 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of disturbances will bring scattered thunderstorms to
portions of western Kansas tonight and tomorrow night. The strongest
will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

- 100 degree temperatures return Friday across south central
  Kansas then across the whole area early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The weather pattern over the forecast period will consist of an
upper level area of high pressure over the southern United States
and Mexico. An upper level trough will move along the Canada/US
border today into this weekend with a second trough next week. A
series of disturbances will move in between these two features
creating enough lift for storms to form in the afternoon and congeal
into a MCS during the evening/overnight hours. The main challenge
with the forecast is to depict where these MCS`s will move through
the Plains.

The first round of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon,
developing along the KS/CO border this afternoon and spreading
eastward as we head into the evening hours. The atmosphere will be
fairly unstable during the afternoon hours with Cape values over
2000 J/kg and surface dewpoints around 70F. 0-6km shear over 30
knots will be found across the western half of the CWA with lesser
amounts across central Kansas. SPC has issued a slight risk for
severe storms this afternoon with large hail and damaging winds
being the main concern. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies
throughout the day with an increase in cloudiness this evening into
the overnight period. Winds throughout the day will generally be
from the south and gust over 25 mph this afternoon. HREF depicts
over a 50 percent chance of wind gusts over 30 mph.  Highs today
will be slightly lower and only reach into the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s across west central Kansas
to mid 70s across south central Kansas.

Warmer temperatures return Friday with highs reaching into the mid
to upper 90s with south central Kansas reaching into the low 100s.
Short range ensemble models show over a 40 percent chance of
temperatures over 100 degrees tomorrow afternoon extending south of
a line from Saint John to Meade. Mostly clear skies are expected
throughout the day with winds shifting to the north and becoming
light behind a surface trough. Another disturbance is expected to
move through the area with thunderstorms developing across
northeastern Colorado in the late afternoon and moving into the
northern zones Friday evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise
expect an increase in cloudiness tomorrow night. The best chance of
these storms to be severe will be across our northern zones with
lesser amounts as you head south. Lows tomorrow night are expected
to range from the mid 60s across west central Kansas to low 70s
across south central Kansas.

Mid to long range models continue to move additional disturbances
through the area this weekend into the early part of next week.
However, the coverage and intensity look to remain lower than what
we will see tonight and tomorrow night. The NBM bringing chances of
thunderstorms during the evening/overnight hours to at least a
portion of the CWA each day. Further model runs will allow better
depiction of the evolution of these storms. Temperatures throughout
this period will start out in the upper 80s to low 90s this weekend
before rebounding into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees Monday
through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day with increasing
mid level cloudiness. There could be a few scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon but have left VCTS to account for
this. Winds will start at less than 12 knots overnight from the
southeast, shifting to the south and increasing by mid morning
as the pressure gradient tightens. Wind gusts over 25 knots are
expected by the afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42