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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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076 ACUS01 KWNS 280115 SWODY1 SPC AC 280114 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 $$