Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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892 FXUS63 KEAX 300516 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1216 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather over the weekend, with temperatures cooling tomorrow. - Heat and humidity return by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A cold frontal boundary draped across northwestern MO has progressed into a mostly stationary boundary, generating persistent low level cloud cover across much of eastern KS and northwest MO throughout the day. Temperatures have remained cooler in the wake of northerly winds, with an exiting upper level trough introducing a building ridge to the south and surface high pressure co-located over the Dakotas/MT. Winds will gust going further into the afternoon as afternoon mixing takes place, before calming into the evening. Any further precipitation should remain south overnight as the boundary progresses southward during the rest of the day today. Tomorrow, temperatures will cool further under dry, northeasterly flow as the surface high moves off towards the east. High temperatures will remain around the mid to upper 70s for much of the area. By Monday, winds will turn towards the southeast as the surface high traverses towards the Great Lakes. With the gradual progression of this high and the continued building of the upper level ridge over the southern CONUS, higher temperatures and humidity return by Tuesday. Predominantly southwesterly flow throughout the atmosphere will generate WAA that will help moist air from the Gulf penetrate through the central US. This additional moisture coupled with rising temperatures will help heat indices return to 100-110 degF for much of the region. Headlines may be needed going into Tuesday with further forecaster discretion. Aside from the heat concerns, another risk for severe weather exists Tuesday evening with the passage of a circling shortwave around an upper level trough in the northern Great Lakes. Due to how far in the future this forecast is, specific details remain uncertain. However, with indications of sufficient shear and lift, the formation of storms with this passing shortwave remain possible. For the remainder of the next week, the gradual degradation of the upper level ridge and embedded shortwaves within its flow suggests more opportunities for precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period. Winds will come from a northerly direction with an occasional gust to 12 mph. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...Collier